The tension in the Strait of Hormuz, centered in Iran, and the resulting disruptions in global oil and LNG flows, brought the discussions on supply security in energy markets to the top of the global agenda again. The disruptions in Hormuz, through which a significant part of the global oil trade passes, lead to both a short-term supply contraction and a permanent risk premium in energy prices in the long term. The limited availability of alternative routes and the rapid rise of insurance and logistics costs make global energy trade more fragile.
HISTORY IN OIL 2030’S
According to Bain & Company’s “Energy and Materials 2026” report, this geopolitical pressure, combined with the already structurally rising global energy demand, drags the markets into an even more difficult balance. According to the report, instead of reaching a single peak, energy demand now exhibits a structure that spans different time periods in different types of energy. In this context, while oil demand is expected to reach a plateau level towards the mid-2030s, it is stated that natural gas demand will continue to grow until the 2040s, and electricity demand will continue to increase until 2050.. This reveals that energy conversion is not a linear process, but rather a process that progresses at different speeds over time.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ALSO INCREASED
While the report lists the increase in electricity options in transportation and gains in energy efficiency as the main reasons for the slowdown in oil demand, it is emphasized that natural gas maintains its importance as a transition fuel, especially in the transition from coal. The continuous increase in electricity demand reveals that the center of the energy system is increasingly shifting to electricity with the influence of artificial intelligence, data centers and digital infrastructure investments.. According to Bain analysis, artificial intelligence-based data centers have become one of the most important factors that increase global electricity demand faster than expected due to the need for uninterrupted energy and high processing power. When industrial growth and urbanization in developing economies are added to this, it is stated that global energy demand remains high.
SUPPLY SHOCK WARNING
The addition of the supply shock originating from the Strait of Hormuz on top of all these structural pressures creates a more complex picture in terms of both supply security and price stability in energy markets. This supply-side fragility, combined with the already rising demand trend, creates permanent upward pressure on energy prices. According to the Bain report, the energy system is being shaped simultaneously by the long-term demand increase spanning the 2035-2050 period, on the one hand, and by the short-term geopolitical supply shocks on the other.. While this situation makes energy markets more unpredictable, it also shows that the transformation process progresses with breaks rather than speed.
100 MILLION BARREL LEVEL
It is stated that approximately 20 percent of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and interruptions in this line affect the daily flow of millions of barrels of crude oil. It is stated that delays in LNG transportation have increased and tanker insurance costs have increased by 30 percent to 50 percent on some routes. It is stated that oil demand is expected to plateau at approximately 100 million barrels per day in the mid-2030s, while natural gas demand will continue to grow until 2040.. It is stated that the global LNG trade volume has expanded by approximately 60 percent in recent years.
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