While the effects of climate change on world cities are becoming increasingly visible, the latest research prepared by climate intelligence company AlphaGeo revealed remarkable results for Türkiye. In the Climate Risk and Resilience Index, which examines the world’s 72 largest cities, Chicago ranked first, while Ankara ranked fifth and Istanbul ranked eighth. While six physical hazards such as inland and coastal floods, extreme heat, drought, forest fires and hurricane winds were taken into account in the research, the infrastructure and adaptation capacity of cities against these risks were also included in the calculation. According to AlphaGeo data, Ankara’s physical climate risk score was calculated as 19. Considering the current adaptation measures, the risk score decreased to 11, while the city’s capacity to reduce climate risks was determined as 42.1 percent. In Istanbul, the physical risk score was calculated as 20, and the remaining risk score after adaptation measures was calculated as 13. Istanbul’s climate risk reduction rate was 35 percent. Thus, Ankara ranked fifth in the world rankings and Istanbul ranked eighth.
DOES NOT MEAN THERE IS NO RISK
However, the results of the research do not mean that Istanbul is completely free from the dangers caused by climate change. AlphaGeo also points out that the scores in the index show the averages of all cities, and that there may be great differences between neighborhoods and regions within the same city. The company also underlines that the ranking should not be considered as a definitive guarantee of protection against climate disasters. As a matter of fact, scientific research on Istanbul and other coastal cities of Türkiye points to serious risks, especially in terms of sea level rise. Scientific studies reveal that the increase in sea level due to global climate change and the melting of glaciers increases the risk of long-term flooding in the low-lying coastal areas of Istanbul and Izmir.
120 SQUARE KILOMETERS IN ISTANBUL
Experts state that if current climate trends continue, there may be a significant risk in coastal areas in Istanbul towards 2050. Studies predict that approximately 120 square kilometers of the city, where more than 6 million people live, may be affected by sea level rise. It is stated that a similar risk also applies to Izmir, and that the danger may grow even further, especially if the ground subsidence measured in some regions is combined with the rise in sea level. Experts also point out that sea flooding, extreme weather events and possible tsunami effects on Türkiye’s coastlines, especially in Istanbul, should be evaluated together.
AEGEAN COASTS ARE ALSO UNDER THREAT
On the other hand, some historical and archaeological sites on the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts are also threatened by sea level rise. It is stated that Knidos and Kaunos in Muğla and Elaia Ancient Port City in İzmir Bergama are among the areas at high risk due to climate change and rising sea levels. The rapid shrinkage of glaciers in Türkiye stands out as another important indicator of the climate crisis in the country. While it is stated that the approximately 700-meter-long glacier in Erciyes has receded to the level of 130 meters today and the loss rate has reached 80 percent, it is stated that similar declines have been experienced in other glaciers in the east of Türkiye.
