After the large-scale attacks launched by the USA and Israel against Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz became the center of the world again. As energy and global supply chains begin to shake with the war, it is a matter of curiosity whether this situation will be reflected in the economic balances in both Europe and Türkiye in the coming days. The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the most critical transit points of the global energy system. While approximately 20-21 million barrels of oil per day and approximately 25 percent of the world LNG trade are transported through this narrow sea corridor, this amount corresponds to approximately 20 percent of the global oil supply.
FEAR OF 180 DOLLARS
According to experts, if the war continues, there is a risk that Brent oil will rise to the 110-130 dollar band by the end of March. It is stated that steps such as commissioning strategic oil reserves and using alternative shipping lines may be insufficient to limit the rise in the market. If the outage extends over a longer period of time, such as two months, there is a strong possibility that Brent oil prices will climb to the 130-150 dollar range. It is evaluated as. It is stated that in a scenario where conflicts continue for 3 or more days and tanker traffic is seriously disrupted, there may be a significant supply gap in the global energy market, in which case oil prices may jump to the level of 180 dollars.
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IS DOUBLED!
The sharp rise in oil prices is expected to have direct and rapid effects on the Turkish economy. Türkiye, which is highly dependent on energy imports, imports approximately 90-100 billion dollars of energy annually. According to economic calculations, every 10 dollar increase in oil prices increases Türkiye’s current account deficit by approximately 2.6 billion dollars. In this context While the oil price remaining at the level of 100 dollars means an additional cost of approximately 5 billion dollars for Türkiye, an increase to the level of 120 dollars creates an additional burden of nearly 10 billion dollars. An increase in prices to the level of 150 dollars brings with it the risk of additional costs of around 18-20 billion dollars. In such a situation, it is also pointed out that Türkiye’s current account deficit may expand towards the 50 billion dollar band again.
2.4 BILLION DOLLAR OUTPUT
The reflection of the war on financial markets is also remarkable. Following the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran, foreign investors made the sharpest exit from Turkish markets in the last 11 months. According to Central Bank data, a total outflow of 2.4 billion dollars was experienced in one week, with the sale of 1.7 billion dollars of bonds and 755 million dollars of shares. In the same period, Central Bank reserves decreased by 12.8 billion dollars, falling to 197.5 billion dollars.
SHAKERING IN THE FAR EAST
The harshest effects of the crisis began to be felt in Asia-Pacific economies that are highly dependent on energy imports. Although Japan and South Korea have hundreds of days’ worth of oil reserves, they face serious risks in industrial production because LNG stocks are only at a few weeks’ level. While Tokyo is looking for new oil supply lines, the Seoul administration is discussing harsh market interventions such as imposing a price ceiling on fuel.
LOTTERY FOR RUSSIANS
For Russia, the resulting picture creates a striking paradox. The rise in oil and gas prices due to the risks in the Gulf line has opened a new financing area for Moscow, which suffered serious losses in energy revenues in 2025. It is evaluated that increasing energy revenues offer the Kremlin additional room for maneuver both in covering the costs of the Ukrainian war and in ensuring stability in domestic policy through social spending. Although the European Union has taken important steps to reduce dependence on Russian gas since 2022, Russian LNG continues to enter the European market through the ports of Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Spain. The fact that the Hormuz crisis has increased energy prices has reignited the debate on how sustainable a complete ban on Russian LNG is in Europe.
ASSETS ARE AFFECTED
Evaluating the latest economic risks, corporate economics expert Gülsev Duran drew attention to the selling pressure seen in global stock markets in recent weeks and said: “Weekly losses in the US markets reached 2 percent, indicating that investors are increasingly looking for safe havens. What is noteworthy recently is that these risks have begun to be priced on a scale that will change not only oil prices but also global portfolio distributions. “This picture shows that geopolitical developments are no longer temporary market fluctuations but have turned into a structural factor that determines asset prices.”
LOSS OF MOMENTUM
Pointing out that the fragility emerging in the global economy is not limited to energy markets only, Duran continued his warnings as follows: “The real fragility in global markets occurs not in growth, but in expectations. The latest data announced in the USA points to a significant loss of momentum in the labor market. The fact that non-agricultural employment was well below expectations in February and the unemployment rate increased to 4.4 percent shows that the signals of a slowdown in the economy are getting stronger.” Economic growth is not stopping completely, but the loss of momentum is becoming evident. “The fragility in global markets is closely linked not only to macro data but also to how investors interpret these data.”
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