“That would make an impression on Trump”

The government is new, the problems are huge: does the black and red coalition have a chance of success in these upheaval times? Political scientist Timo Lochocki estimates the location.

The election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor was turbulent, now the federal government has to face numerous internal and external challenges: the strengthening of the AfD and Donald Trump’s disruptive policy are only two of the most urgent problems.

Can Germany cope with the many crises? Yes, says Timo Lochocki. The political scientist and author of the book “German interests” is even convinced that Germany can become the strongest democracy in the world. In conversation, Lochocki analyzes what the Federal Government now has to do to impress Donald Trump.

T-online: Mr. Lochocki, the world situation is dramatic. Do Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his black and red coalition have the potential to prepare Germany for the challenges?

Timo Lochocki: I actually trust the federal government that, the potential for positive change is much greater than in previous governments. It may sound paradoxical, but Friedrich Merz does not come first.

The two parliamentary group leader, Jens Spahn from the CDU and Matthias Miersch from the SPD, now have an enormous power of power. Yes, the Chancellor has the institutionally strongest position, but both group leader of the coalition must give him the majority. We saw how close it is in the chancellor’s election, for which it took two attempts.

Is Merz already damaged? He is the first Chancellor of the Federal Republic to have not been elected in the first ballot.

That doesn’t have to mean anything. Rather, it depends on how stable the federal government will act. This means that we are back with the parliamentary group leader and the other centers of power within the coalition. The Federal Minister are also in a very weak position towards the parliamentary group leader because most of them do not have their own domestic power in their parties. The Social Democrats Lars Klingbeil, Boris Pistorius or Alexander Dobrindt from the CSU are among the exceptions. In fact, the ministers of the SPD look more powerful because they bring in more domestic power. But it is crucial: the decisive people have to pull together to make this government a success.

That sounds like constant stress samples?

It doesn’t have to be that way. We are currently in the mixture that the entire ideological positions between two parties of this strip are largely sanded. This is a pretty good news. Instead, hopefully pragmatism will form the guideline. I already have great doubts that the black and red coalition will now process your coalition contract. Events and crises that occur again and again will rather determine political events. It takes cool, considering decisions, no ideology.

However, numerous structural reforms in Germany require changes to the Basic Law. The black-red coalition is far from the necessary majority.

That’s the way it is. Voices from the AfD would also be difficult. But you can talk to the Greens and also with the Left Party. Germany is pretty lucky that the Left Party has a fairly moderate left -wing party. A Jean-Luc Mélenchon in France is far more radical.

Now there could be violent conflicts, especially in the area of ​​migration? Not only between the Union on the one hand and green like the left on the other, but also with the SPD?

The CDU under Merz will want to sharpen your conservative profile, that’s what parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn also stands for. This is correct to address wide layers of voters and make the AfD more unattractive for them. With the SPD, the party left is currently relatively weak, which could be an advantage. With the Greens and the Left Party, compromises have to be closed. The Union has already built the first bridges for the Left Party in the chancellor election. Otherwise Merz could not have competed in the Bundestag on May 6th. The government has to demonstrate the ability to act, which is now crucial.