While the fluctuations in the economy continue, speculations put forward by some circles have caused negative reflections in a week. So much so that the Central Bank’s net reserves, excluding swaps, decreased by 4.3 billion dollars last week. It is stated that there was a decrease because the Central Bank balanced the exchange rate through sales when rumors that Şimşek was resigning increased the demand for foreign exchange.
PARITY INCREASED
While the foreign exchange deposits of domestic residents increased by 3.4 billion dollars due to the parity effect in the week of August 23, there are both positive and negative developments. In fact; The growth rate in commercial loans is at its lowest in 6 months. The 13-week annualized and exchange rate-adjusted growth is at 21.3 percent. The export figures are at the forefront of the positive developments reflected in the market and economy. Turkey’s exports increased by 13.8 percent compared to the same month of the previous year in July, reaching 22 billion 510 million dollars, while imports decreased by 7.8 percent, reaching 29 billion 805 million dollars. The foreign trade deficit decreased by 41.8 percent in July compared to the same month last year, falling to 7 billion 295 million dollars. Analysts, on the other hand, state that exports have increased despite all the complaints of exporters about the exchange rate, and that it is important to increase exports at a time when low demand in the EU, our main export market, is also negatively affecting exports.
IMF UPDATED
On the other hand, in its report on the IMF visit to Turkey, it wrote that Turkey had significantly reduced crisis risks by tightening its general policy mix. It also stated that its growth expectation for the end of 2024 was 3.4 percent and its inflation expectation was 43 percent. The growth forecast in the OVP is expected to be lowered to around 3.5 percent for 2024.
DeutscheBank and Citibank reiterated their TL recommendations in their latest reports. The reports state that despite the recent depreciation of the TL, the USD/TL exchange rate may still remain below its implied level. In the summary of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (TCMB) monetary policy committee meeting for August, analysts emphasize that the tight stance will continue until a significant decrease is achieved in the underlying trend of monthly inflation.
(email protected)
