Russia’s war against Ukraine seems endless, but even Vladimir Putin has to achieve success at some point. Things are looking bad for the Kremlin boss, says Vladimir Kaminer.
Nobody in Moscow speaks more of a “special operation”. In view of the burning refineries, warehouses and rattling anti-aircraft defenses around the capital, it would be ridiculous and implausible to talk about any “operation” and to continue to hide the war from one’s own population. Now the war is called “war” and is presented in the Kremlin’s official language as “war against the West.”
That changes a lot of people’s perceptions. While the “Special Operation” rumbled along somewhere behind the seven mountains, had no time limit and could have dragged on indefinitely without causing much discontent among the population, the war needed a quick victory. A lack of victory this winter would mean a defeat for the regime. So Moscow is desperately looking for a victory. All experts say that rapid progress is not possible on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine.
To person
Vladimir Kaminer is a writer and columnist. He was born in Moscow in 1967 and has lived in Germany for decades. His best-known works include “Russian disco“Kaminer’s current book”Mother’s Days. Stories about the heroines of everyday life” was published in August 2026.
While the Russian mercenaries occupy one village at one end of the front, the Ukrainians liberate two at the other end. This constant back and forth doesn’t look like a win. Microscopic territorial conquests only bring more danger and are difficult to sell as a victory. The Russian fighters are financially motivated; If their salaries don’t come on time, they withdraw, which has happened several times. And if you pay them, they’re not exactly eager to rush forward.
The other path to victory would be to permanently destroy the civilian infrastructure of the Ukrainian population with air strikes. Under these conditions they would put pressure on their political leadership to persuade them to surrender. That’s why rockets are raining down on Kharkiv Kyivthe sirens don’t stop wailing day and night. A friend of mine who just came from Kyiv Berlin traveled, said that he also suffered from phantom sirens in Germany, which he now constantly has in his ears. Now, every time a plane appears in the sky, he flinches.
Ukraine can fight back
The sky above Ukraine is for the civilian Air traffic It’s basically been closed for four and a half years, with only bombs, rockets and drones falling from the sky. However, intimidating the Ukrainian population will not work, says my friend. On the one hand, the Ukrainians have already been through several winters under fire, and on the other hand, they are now in a position to bomb back. Blackouts on Russian territory may be a big surprise for Russians in the upcoming winter.
The other news that is unsettling the Russian population is the lack of air defense in the hinterland. The Russian government said that the defense of refineries and warehouses should be left to the companies that own these facilities. “The rescue of the drowning lies in the care of the drowning”: they must create their own air defense. A quiet whisper came from the belly of the people: “Where is the missile defense? Stolen!”
