Real estate market, Pendik rising, Beşiktaş falling

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Lerato Khumalo

If the North Anatolian Fault Line ruptures through the Sea of ​​Marmara, a 7.5 magnitude earthquake is expected. Istanbul is the city that will be most affected by this potential earthquake. In the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality’s “Istanbul Province Possible Earthquake Loss Estimates Update Project” report, Endeksa examined the real estate market in 25 neighborhoods. Among these neighborhoods, the ones that have gained the most value in the last 4 years were Pendik Ertuğrul Gazi, Maltepe Esenkent and Üsküdar Yavuztürk. The neighborhoods that gained the least value in 4 years are Maltepe Gülensu, Beşiktaş Ortaköy, Beyoğlu İstiklal and Fatih Kocamustafapaşa. It was determined as follows. Among the neighborhoods where urban transformation is on the agenda, the highest rent increase was in Fikirtepe, while the lowest rent increase was in Pendik Ertuğrulgazi Neighborhood.

Üsküdar’s Yavuztürk Neighborhood, which is the second district in Istanbul in terms of housing stock over 30 years old, stands out as the second neighborhood that will suffer the most losses in the event of an earthquake.

SLUMS CITY PENDIK

The results of the real estate value research are as follows:

Pendik/Ertugrulgazi: Ertuğrulgazi neighborhood, where shantytown construction has been intense since the 1980s, was included in the scope of urban transformation in September 2022. Ertuğrulgazi Neighborhood, which also draws attention with its location close to Aydos Forest and Sabiha Gökçen Airport, is the urban transformation area with the highest nominal increase in the average value of housing for sale in 4 years, with an increase of 1283 percent. In the neighborhood, where the price per square meter is 30 thousand 851 TL/square meter, the change in the 2-year sale value is 148 percent; and the annual change in the sale value is 31 percent. In Ertuğrulgazi, where the real value change is 178 percent in 4 years, the value of housing for sale seems to have decreased by 24 percent in real terms in the last year.

MASS HOUSING EFFECT

Maltepe/Esenkent: The Esenkent Neighborhood of Maltepe, whose urban transformation process has accelerated in recent years with mass housing construction, is the second highest nominal increase in the value of housing for sale in 4 years among high-risk areas. The average value of housing for sale in Esenkent increased by 1010 percent in 4 years. The neighborhood, where the price per square meter is 46 thousand 872 TL/square meter, has a 2-year change in the value of the sale by 146 percent and an annual change in the value of the sale by 16 percent. The neighborhood’s 4-year real value change is 123 percent. The real change in Esenkent’s for-sale housing market has been declining over the last year, as in other neighborhoods of Istanbul. Prices of houses for sale have decreased by 33 percent in real terms in the last year.

ÜSKÜDAR FULL OF OLD BUILDINGS

Uskudar/Yavuzturk: Yavuztürk is the third region with the highest nominal increase in homes for sale in 4 years. During this period, the sale housing prices in Yavuztürk Neighborhood increased by 1003 percent, the sale unit square meter price is 43 thousand 842 TL/square meter. The 2-year sale value change in the neighborhood is 265 percent; the annual sale value change is 56 percent. The sale real estate prices in Yavuztürk, where the four-year real value change is recorded as 122 percent, have decreased by 10 percent in real terms in the last year.

VIEW OF THE ISLANDS BUT…

Maltepe/Gülensu: Gülensu, with a view of the islands, has become the region with the least increase in its sale value in 4 years. The 4-year sale value change in Gülensu Neighborhood has been determined as 394 percent and the unit square meter price for sale is 30 thousand 782 TL/square meter. The annual sale value change is 38 percent and the 2-year sale value change is 127 percent. Gülensu It is also the only region among these regions whose value has decreased in real terms in four years. The average price of housing for sale in the neighborhood has decreased by 1 percent in real terms in 4 years.

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The buildings in Ortaköy are quite old, as the famous street, Dereboyu, is located on a stream bed and is not only at risk of earthquakes but also landslides.

LANDSLIDE DANGEROUS ORTAKÖY

Besiktas/OrtakoyOrtaköy is one of the Istanbul neighborhoods where urban transformation and reinforcement processes are progressing slowly. This situation is also reflected in the increase in the value of housing prices. The 4-year increase rate of houses for sale in Ortaköy is at the level of 531 percent. In the neighborhood where the sale unit square meter price is 120 thousand 298 TL/square meter, the 2-year sale value change is 93 percent and the annual sale value change is 39 percent. In the neighborhood where the sale housing market increased by 27 percent in real terms in 4 years, prices decreased by 20 percent in real terms in the last year.

WORLD FAMOUS INDEPENDENCE

Beyoglu/Istiklal: Urban transformation work has been ongoing for over 10 years in the region, which is the center of attraction of Istanbul. The prices of housing for sale in Istiklal have increased fivefold in 4 years. The price per square meter of the unit for sale has reached 119 thousand 620 TL/square meter. The change in the sale value in the neighborhood in two years is 122 percent; the annual sale value change is 32 percent. While the 4-year real value change in Istiklal was recorded as 30 percent, house prices for sale decreased by 24 percent in real terms in the last year.

THE OLDEST DISTRICT

Fatih/Kocamustafapaşa: Fatih is one of the regions with the highest risk of earthquakes due to its oldest housing stock. Kocamustafapaşa, whose urban transformation process is pregnant with discussions due to its historical value, In the event of an earthquake, Fatih stands out as the region that will suffer the most losses. In Kocamustafapaşa, the prices of houses for sale have increased 6-fold in 4 years. In the neighborhood where the price per square meter is 28,963 TL/square meter, the 2-year change in the sale value is 161 percent; the annual change in the sale value is 25 percent. In the neighborhood where the 4-year real value change is 44 percent, the prices of houses for sale have decreased by 28 percent in the last year.

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Fkirtepe is in the process of urban transformation and rents in the area are constantly increasing.

HIGH RENT KADIKOY

Kadıköy/ Fikirtepe: Fikirtepe is the region with the highest rent increase in 4 years. In Fikirtepe, the 4-year rental value increase is 1330 percent, and the real rental value increase is 188 percent. The rental unit square meter price in this neighborhood is 386 TL/square meter.

Eagle/Freedom: In Hürriyet Neighborhood, the nominal rental value increase in 4 years was recorded as 1300 percent and the real rental value increase as 182 percent. The rental unit square meter price was measured as 196 TL/square meter.

MINIMUM RENT INCREASE

Kartal/Orhantepe: Here, the nominal rental value increase in 4 years is 1269 percent, and the real rental value increase is 176 percent. The rental unit price per square meter in the neighborhood was measured as 219 TL/square meter.

Pendik/Ertugrulgazi: Rents in Ertuğrulgazi Neighborhood have increased by 55 percent nominally in 4 years. When this data is adjusted for inflation, it is seen that real rental prices have decreased by 69 percent in 4 years. The rental unit square meter price in Ertuğrulgazi is 87 TL/square meter.

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