Nobody can get past Trump

Before the midterms

Republican primaries: Nobody can get past Trump

The Republican primaries clearly show President Trump’s control over his party: Anyone who loses his favor has little chance. But Trump’s successes could fall on his feet.

Given the tough election campaign, it is said to have been the most expensive primary election for a seat in the US Senate ever: In the Republican stronghold of Texas, US President Donald Trump’s candidate Ken Paxton prevailed against his party colleague, the long-time incumbent James Cornyn. Paxton has been mired in scandals, but he is considered right-wing and staunchly loyal to Trump: Now he will run for the Republicans in the important midterm elections in November.

Given the constantly falling approval ratings for Trump, the primary election was also seen as a test: How firmly does the president still have his party under control? The answer is clear: whoever loses Trump’s favor is out.

But ironically, Trump’s successes also pose a risk for him. The more loyal upstarts he pushes against the incumbents, the more disillusioned Republicans will be in Congress – at least until they are voted out. And the frustration among his party colleagues is clearly noticeable.

“Trump’s election recommendations are extremely successful, especially in Republican primaries: over 90 percent of the candidates he supports win,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, professor of political science at the University of Houston, to the German Press Agency. Trump, who announced his support for Paxton just a week ago, has fundamentally changed the race in Texas. “Especially in Texas, his support has become one of the most valuable assets a Republican candidate can have,” Rottinghaus said.

In the primaries, Republicans and Democrats decide who they will send into the race in the midterm elections in November. In addition to positions at the state level, this primarily involves all seats in the House of Representatives and around a third of the seats in the Senate. If Trump loses even a majority in one of the parliamentary chambers, he will hardly be able to push his plans through in Congress.

In many cases, experts even consider the primaries to be more important than the actual “midterms,” because in most states and electoral districts it is already clear which party will get the most votes in November.

Trump expresses his support for candidates from whom he expects unconditional loyalty. Anyone who opposes the president will be punished. Long-time Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana recently felt this. He voted for Trump’s impeachment after the storming of the Capitol in January 2021 – and lost his primary election against Trump’s candidate two weeks ago. Thomas Massie, one of the few Republican critics of the Iran war, lost in Kentucky last week after Trump withdrew his confidence.