Middle East diplomacy resists escalation of war

Israel’s enemies are threatening retaliation for the killing of two important leaders. A serious escalation is looming. Can a conflagration still be prevented?

Ten days after the killing of two high-ranking enemies of Israel in Tehran and Beirut, it is still unclear whether and when Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah will carry out the threatened massive retaliatory strikes against Israel. While the population in Israel goes about their daily business visibly unimpressed, the country’s armed forces have been on high alert for days. The USA, Israel’s most important ally, brought additional warships and fighter planes to the region.

At the same time, according to media reports, enormous efforts are being made behind the scenes to defuse the explosive situation through diplomatic efforts. The focus is on the indirect talks between Israel and the radical Islamic Palestinian group Hamas, which have been stuck for months, to bring an end to the ten-month Gaza war and to achieve the release of more than 100 hostages held by Hamas. The USA, Egypt and Qatar are mediating in this process.

A planned round of talks next Thursday in Cairo or Doha could prove decisive. They will apparently be preceded by intensive negotiations led by emissaries of the mediating states on individual aspects of the desired agreement, such as the question of the future security of the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.

“The results of the coming week,” wrote Israeli journalist Barak Ravid on the portal “axios.com,” “will show whether the region (…) is sinking into an expanding, perpetual war or whether there will be a significant change of course for the first time since October 7 (the start of the Gaza war).” Israeli officials described Thursday’s meeting to Ravid as a “now-or-never moment.”

Hamas in the Gaza Strip is supported by Iran. The pro-Iranian Shiite militia Hezbollah has been firing rockets and drones at northern Israel since the beginning of the Gaza war – in solidarity with Hamas, as it claims. Substantial steps towards ending the Gaza war are given additional weight by the fact that Iran and Hezbollah have repeatedly stressed in the past that they want to reduce hostilities against Israel as soon as Israel ends the war in Gaza.

The danger of a conflagration in the region has been looming since two leading figures of Hamas and Hezbollah were killed in attacks ten days ago. Hamas’ foreign affairs chief, Ismail Haniya, died in an explosion in his room in an Iranian government guesthouse in Tehran. Fuad Shukr, a kind of military chief of Hezbollah, was killed in an airstrike in Beirut a few hours earlier. Israel claimed responsibility for his targeted killing. It did not comment on the assassination attempt on Haniya. Tehran and Hamas, however, consider Israel to be responsible. Iran and Hezbollah have threatened massive retaliation for both killings.

Israel and its allies assume that they will be able to intercept a large number of rockets, cruise missiles and drones with modern defense systems. If many people are killed, Israel could respond with massive retaliation. This in turn could trigger an uncontrollable escalation and a major Middle East war, even if neither side intends this.

The biggest obstacle to the Gaza negotiations has recently been the intransigent attitude of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. With ever new demands, he has blocked steps towards an agreement and thus even alienated the USA and the top brass of his own security apparatus. The latter are taking part in the talks on the basis of Netanyahu’s instructions for Israel. The Prime Minister governs in a coalition with right-wing extremist and ultra-religious parties. These are threatening to collapse the government if Netanyahu makes concessions to Hamas.

Meanwhile, in Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, thousands of people demonstrated for a Gaza agreement that would lead to the release of 115 hostages held by the Islamist Hamas. “This is our last chance to reach a deal that saves lives,” said the mother of one of the abductees at the rally in Tel Aviv. “Netanyahu continues to risk the lives of the hostages in order to keep his throne,” the newspaper “Haaretz” quoted her as saying. According to media reports, there were further protests in Jerusalem, Haifa, Beersheba and in Caesarea in front of Netanyahu’s private villa.