While the wavy course in the economy was continuing, the latest data caused confusion. Former Bank of the Central Bank Hakan Kara, in the social media account, the Central Bank is at the highest level of history as both net and gross reserves, while the increase in the rate of increase in the dollar exchange rate remains uncertain. Analysts pointed out that the Central Bank made a foreign exchange purchases of 2.7 billion dollars last week. According to the latest information obtained, the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves saw the summit with $ 173 billion, while the net reserves except SWAP have increased to $ 71.5 billion. The most curious thing in the markets is how the increase in the exchange rate and the exchange rate of the exchange rate will be shaped.
Is it 42 TL at the end of the year?
International Credit Evaluation Organization Standard & Poor’s; Türkiye’s assessment of the end of 2025 35 percent of interest rate forecast to 32.5 percent, while 2026 announced the end of the year as 20 percent. New York -based institution; 2027 predicted 15 percent, while the dollar/TL estimation of 42 for the end of the year did not go to revision.
The increase in ‘foreign exchange’ will continue
Marketing and Business Specialist Volkan Soykan pointed out that there will be an increase in fuel prices along with the rise in foreign currency, “Commercial loan interest was 50.6 percent in the week of February 14th. 5 points fell compared to last year. Consumer loans an average interest rate of 61.5 percent, while the rate of last year at the end of last year According to 3.5 points, the total rate of 5.6 points was a decrease in the last year. on the other hand. The share of exchange rate protection deposits in total deposits fell below 5 percent. However, the exchange rate continues to increase, albeit slowly. Increases in fuel prices can be seen soon “ he said.
Improvement in Inflation
Soykan also drew attention to the research titled “Monetary Policy and Expectations Cipping of Expectations ılan published on the Central Bank blog page,” According to the findings and results of the study, he said, with the strict monetary policy implemented since the second half of 2023, healing of inflation expectations were underlined, “he said. .
“It will not exceed 40 TL”
Economist Esfender Korkmaz said that the increase in the dollar exchange rate will not exceed the $ 40 band at the end of the year and said: “In order to continue the hot money flow, the increase in the exchange rate should not exceed the interest rate. The main problem in Turkey is still based on 2003 in the real exchange index. Dollar Index and Export goods composition has changed over the last year. The real exchange rate index should be prepared based on 2024. The increase in the reserves of the Central Bank is positive but it is necessary to see the comprehensive table of net reserves. “
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