The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published the September Market Participants Survey. In the survey, market participants’ inflation and growth expectations declined.
Market participants’ year-end inflation expectation was 43.14 percent. The previous figure was 43.31. Growth expectations also fell from 3.4 to 3.2.
Dollar expectations fell from 37.28 TL to 37.16.
The results of the CBRT’s Market Participants Survey are as follows;
“The participants’ current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation was 43.14 percent in this survey period, compared to 43.31 percent in the previous survey period. The 12-month CPI expectation was 28.71 percent in the previous survey period, compared to 27.49 percent in this survey period. The 24-month CPI expectation was 19.30 percent and 18.38 percent in the same survey periods, respectively.
When the participants’ probability estimates for the next 12 months are evaluated in the September 2024 survey period, it is predicted that the CPI will increase in the range of 22.00 – 25.99 percent with a probability of 34.22 percent, in the range of 26.00 – 29.99 percent with a probability of 42.22 percent, and in the range of 30.00 – 33.99 percent with a probability of 13.26 percent.
According to the evaluation made based on point estimates (2) in the same survey period, it is observed that 21.67 percent of the participants’ expectations are in the range of 22.00 – 25.99 percent, 51.67 percent of the participants’ expectations are in the range of 26.00 – 29.99 percent, and 15.00 percent of the participants’ expectations are in the range of 30.00 – 33.99 percent.
When the participants’ probability estimates for the next 24 months are evaluated in the September 2024 survey period, it is predicted that the CPI will increase on average in the range of 13.00 – 16.99 percent with a 22.06 percent probability, in the range of 17.00 – 20.99 percent with a 56.91 percent probability, and in the range of 21.00 – 24.99 percent with a 9.38 percent probability.
According to the evaluation made based on point estimates(2) in the same survey period, when the CPI inflation expectations for the next 24 months are evaluated, it is observed that 18.52 percent of the participants have expectations between 13.00 – 16.99 percent, 59.26 percent have expectations between 17.00 – 20.99 percent, and 12.96 percent have expectations between 21.00 – 24.99 percent.
Participants’ expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate formed in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market was 50.00 percent in the previous survey period, while it was 50.83 percent in this survey period. The CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for the current month-end was 50.00 percent in this survey period, as in the previous survey period.
Participants’ current year-end exchange rate (USD/TL) expectation was 37.28 TL in the previous survey period, while it became 37.16 TL in this survey period. The 12-month-ahead exchange rate expectation was 42.03 TL in the previous survey period, while it became 42.43 TL in this survey period.
Participants’ GDP growth expectation for 2024 was 3.4 percent in the previous survey period, while it was 3.2 percent in this survey period. GDP growth expectation for 2025 was 3.5 percent in the previous survey period, while it was 3.4 percent in this survey period.
