“Higher than expected”
Pro-Russia party suffers severe electoral defeat
October 4, 2026 – 6:46 a.mReading time: 2 minutes
The pro-Western government in Latvia has won a clear election victory. The Putin-friendly opposition is falling by the wayside.
In the parliamentary election in Latvia According to partial results, Prime Minister Andris Kulberg’s governing party has become, as expected, the strongest force – which means that the state on NATO’s eastern flank is likely to continue its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. Kulberg’s center-right United List party received 35.8 percent of the vote after half of all ballot papers were counted, the electoral commission announced on Sunday.
“It’s not over yet, but it’s higher than expected,” Kulbergs told reporters. The result shows that people “really want change.” Kulbergs leads a coalition made up of the United List, New Unity, National Alliance and the Farmers’ and Greens’ Association.
The winner of the election will probably have to form a new government
However, his governing coalition is unlikely to be able to continue in its current form. According to the partial results early in the morning, the previous coalition partner Farmers and Greens Association was at 5.1 percent and could therefore still fail at the five percent hurdle.
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The other coalition partners – the right-wing conservative National Alliance and the moderate New Unity – received 8.7 and 6.7 percent of the vote, respectively, according to previous post-election polls. This would require the formation of a new coalition, either with the social democratic pro-European Progressives or with the populist Latvia First party.
Latvia First, according to partial results, got 13.4 percent, the Progressives achieved six percent after half of all votes were counted.
Pro-Russian party only reaches 10 percent
According to post-election surveys, the populist Sovereign Power party got 10.8 percent. She criticizes the military aid for the Ukraine and higher defense spending and is described by opponents as pro-Russian. Most major parties have ruled out working with her.
Post-election polls are generally reliable. But voters’ reluctance to openly admit their support for more radical parties could mean that populist parties end up doing better than forecast.
Roberts Kits, an analyst at Latvian think tank LaSER, told AFP the biggest discrepancy between the results based on post-election polls and the actual votes counted would likely be among the Latvia First and Sovereign Power parties supported by Russian-speaking voters.
Election under the impression of the Russian threat
Sigita Struberga from the Latvian Transatlantic Association (LATO) told AFP it was still too early to accurately predict the composition of a future coalition. “We have to wait for the actual results, which may be slightly different from the current numbers,” she stressed.
The election in the EU and NATO member state took place under the impression of the Russian threat and growing economic concerns. Security and defense shaped the election campaign in the Baltic state, as did rising living costs, low wages and problems in the health system.
