Wadephul knows that the man he just met at the State Department said just a few days ago about Greenland that you have to believe what his boss in the White House says. If this is true, then Trump wants to take Greenland – “the easy way or the hard way”.
Experts such as the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Jeremy Shapiro, have long been drawing scenarios that assume a “modern imperialism” in which the USA would not have to use military force at all to secure the Arctic island. Among other things, he speaks of the term “geo-osmosis”, i.e. a gradual seepage of American influence into Greenland.
To do this, the island, which belongs to Denmark, would be gradually “functionally” taken over: The USA could therefore specifically create economic, logistical and security policy dependencies by replacing infrastructure, supplies and administration where Danish structures fail or are possibly deliberately blocked. Investments, aid programs and legal gray areas could be used to try to disrupt democratic decision-making processes without openly abolishing them.
While formal sovereignty would initially remain, actual control would shift imperceptibly but steadily to Washington. At the end of such a development, Greenland would not be a formally annexed territory, but a politically emptied region whose loyalty arises from dependence – possibly as a kind of American special economic zone.
It is currently completely unclear whether the federal government and the Europeans would even have an answer to such hybrid, hostile actions. Given the massive dependencies on the USA, especially in the Ukraine war and in deterring Russia, it seems unthinkable that the Europeans would jeopardize their relationship with their adrift ally.
For Wadephul, the path leads through the consistent emphasis on “categorical similarities”. It is obvious that the relationship is in no way comparable to Russia and China. The Germans in particular have the Americans to thank for their liberation from the Nazis. Furthermore, Europe appears “strong” and “confident”. We are currently showing, particularly through new trade agreements, that we have “capability in global politics”.
