Is an oil crisis in the Baltic Sea looming because of Putin’s “shadow fleet”?

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Lerato Khumalo

More and more dilapidated Russian oil tankers are cruising off the German Baltic coast. Environmentalists are calling on the German government to take urgent action.

According to research by the environmental organization Greenpeace, Russian oil exports using outdated tankers are endangering the German Baltic coast. The risk of an oil disaster has risen sharply since the beginning of the war in Ukraine and the entry into force of sanctions against Russia, the organization in Hamburg explained. For its research, it evaluated ship data from 2021 to 2024. In addition, GPS buoys were deployed along the tanker routes to simulate the possible consequences of an oil spill.

Since the EU stopped importing Russian oil, Russia has been delivering more crude oil by ship, according to Greenpeace. Before the war began, a large proportion of Russian oil went to Western Europe via pipelines. Now Russia ships its oil mainly to China, India and Turkey.

A package of sanctions imposed by the G7 states prohibits Western shipping companies and ship insurers from participating in Russian crude oil exports above 60 dollars per barrel. However, Russia is circumventing these sanctions by using ships from other shipping companies with other insurance for its exports, explains Greenpeace.

These ships of the so-called shadow fleet are often old and in poor condition. According to Greenpeace, many tankers are also inadequately insured, so it is unclear who will pay for damages in an emergency. The tankers pass through particularly dangerous waters off the German Baltic coast – the so-called Kadetrinne: a system of deep channels on the seabed. The confiscation of individual ships by Western states has so far had little impact on Russia’s “shadow fleet”.

According to the research, crude oil tanker voyages from Russian Baltic ports along the German Baltic coast have increased by 70 percent since January 2021. Overall shipping traffic on this route, however, has been declining since the start of the war. At the same time, the average age of the crude oil tankers used increased from 8.9 years in 2021 to 16.6 years in 2024.

On some days, up to three large oil tankers were observed off the German coast at the same time. Together, these could transport up to 328,000 tons of oil. According to Greenpeace, the ships are sailing through the sensitive areas without the support of local experts such as pilots. If an accident were to occur here, the research shows that the islands of Fehmarn and the Baltic Sea resorts of Warnemünde and Damp would be threatened by an oil spill.

The environmental protection organization called on the federal government to act “before an accident occurs.” What is needed is “a pilot requirement for safe passage through busy routes, adequate insurance coverage for tankers and proof of their seaworthiness,” explained Nina Noelle of Greenpeace.