Selling pressure is deepening in global markets due to the effects of rising oil prices and rising bond interest rates due to the US intensifying its attacks on Iran.
The increase in oil prices due to the renewed attacks of the USA against Iran and the sales wave in the bond market caused the downward trend in the stock markets to increase.
US President Donald Trump announced yesterday in a post on his social media account that they are carrying out new attacks against Iran.
Warning Tehran not to retaliate, Trump said, “If the failed Iranian state retaliates for this perfectly justified attack, it will be hit again with a much harder and larger-scale attack.” he said.
Trump stated that the “biggest” attack against Iran has not yet been carried out and argued that such an attack would bring great destruction to Iran. Iranian media announced that the Iranian army retaliated against the US attacks with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Later, CENTCOM reported that the wave of attacks launched against Revolutionary Guard Army targets in Iran was completed.
Rising oil prices as conflicts intensify in the Middle East increase concerns that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a tighter stance on interest rate policy. While this situation negatively affects the stock markets, it also deepens the selling pressure in the bond market.
The US 10-year bond interest rate has reached its highest level since November 2023 at 4.82 percent, and the US 2-year bond rate has reached its highest level since January 2025 at 4.42 percent. With these developments, the barrel price of December term Brent oil increased by 4.1 percent and reached 95.4 dollars. The barrel price of October delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by 0.4 percent to 90.6 dollars.
On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that sanctions against a bank may be announced this week within the scope of the economic operation against Iran.
On the other hand, Bessent discussed macroeconomic coordination and monetary policy steps in his meeting with Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda.
In addition to geopolitical developments, the statements of Fed officials are also closely followed. Fed Board Member Michael Barr stated that inflation has been high for more than five years.
Noting that they will have a little more time to evaluate the policy stance if the data gives confidence that inflation is heading towards the 2 percent target, Barr said, “However, if it is seen that inflation has not slowed down enough, I think we need to act decisively to increase interest rates.” he said.
On the macroeconomic data side, the US manufacturing sector PMI data remained unchanged compared to the previous month, reaching 53.9 in August. In the country, the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) fell to 54.6 in August, indicating that the growth in the manufacturing sector was slowing down.
Although the number of JOLTS job vacancies in the USA increased to 7 million 271 thousand in July, it was below market expectations.
An ounce of gold is traded at $4,307, with a decrease of 0.5 percent. The dollar index is at 99.8 with an increase of 0.1 percent.
The New York stock market ended the day with a decline as increasing geopolitical tensions increased oil prices and bond interest rates.
On the other hand, as Apple’s new chief executive officer (CEO) John Ternus began his duties, which he took over from Tim Cook, the company’s shares gained 2.6 percent. Shares of Dell Technologies also increased by 9.5 percent in after-market transactions after the company’s balance sheet exceeded expectations.
With these developments, the Dow Jones index lost 0.79 percent, the S&P 500 index lost 0.71 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 1.03 percent.
Index futures contracts in the USA started the day with a decline.
A sales-oriented trend was observed in European stock markets yesterday, as sharp increases in bond interest rates and the escalation of military conflicts in the Middle East seriously reduced the appetite for risky assets.
On the European side, the harsh selling pressure in the bond market is also noticeable. Germany’s 10-year bond interest has reached its highest level since 2011, reaching 3.36 percent, the UK’s 10-year bond interest has reached its highest level since 2008, at 5.24 percent, and France’s 2-year bond interest has reached its highest level since 2024, at 3.15 percent.
Annual inflation in the Eurozone reached 3.3 percent in August, reaching its highest level in nearly three years, due to the rapid increase in energy prices.
The manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the Eurozone reached 52.7 points in August, reaching the highest level in the last 51 months.
Following these data, predictions that the European Central Bank (ECB) will increase interest rates at its September meeting have gained strength. The fact that the presidential elections to be held in France in 2027 will increase political uncertainties in the country also affects the selling pressure on the French stock market.
Inflation concerns in France put pressure on the shares of luxury retail companies. The Italian stock market also fell on concerns about the banking sector.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England lost 0.32 percent, the CAC 40 index in France lost 0.39 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany lost 1.10 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy lost 1.33 percent.
Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a decline.
With these developments, a negative trend is observed in Asian markets. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the BoJ will continue to evaluate interest rate increases and will examine whether economic and price developments are consistent with its expectations.
With these developments, Japan’s 5-year bond interest hit the highest level since 1994 at 2.30 percent. The country’s 10-year bond interest also reached the highest level since 1995 at 3.017 percent.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.
With these developments, near the closing, the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 3.4 percent, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 3 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 1 percent, and the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 1 percent.
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend yesterday, finished the day at 14,229.01 points, losing 0.73 percent of its value.
The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) decreased by 0.3 percent yesterday.
While Dollar/TL completed the day at 48.2850 with a 0.1 percent increase yesterday, it is traded at 48.2940 at the opening of the interbank market today, just above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that the data agenda will be calm in the country today, and that weekly mortgage applications in the USA, ADP private sector employment, factory orders and durable goods orders and the Fed’s Beige Book report will be followed abroad, and noted that technically, 14,100 and 14,000 points in the BIST 100 index are in the support position, and 14,300 and 14,400 points are in the resistance position.
