Expectations increased in the Market Participants Survey organized by the CBRT. Year-end inflation expectations increased by more than 2 percent.
While the current year-end inflation forecast was 25.38 percent in the previous survey period, it was 27.53 percent in the April survey period.
The inflation expectation for the end of 2026, which was around 23 percent in January, approached 28 percent.
The statement made by the CBRT is as follows:
“While the participants’ current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation was 25.38 percent in the previous survey period, it became 27.53 percent in this survey period. While the 12-month CPI expectation was 22.17 percent in the previous survey period, it became 23.39 percent in this survey period. The 24-month CPI expectation, while it was 17.30 percent in the previous survey period, was 18.02 percent in this survey period.
EXPECTATIONS AFTER 12 MONTHS
In the April 2026 survey period, when the probability estimates of the participants for 12 months are evaluated, it is predicted that the CPI will increase on average with a probability of 20.17 percent in the range of 19.00 – 21.99 percent, with a probability of 44.95 percent in the range of 22.00 – 24.99 percent, and with a probability of 22.14 percent in the range of 25.00 – 27.99 percent.
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According to the evaluation made based on point estimates during the same survey period, it is observed that the expectations of 14.06 percent of the participants are in the range of 19.00 – 21.99 percent, the expectations of 57.81 percent are in the range of 22.00 – 24.99 percent, and the expectations of 20.31 percent are in the range of 25.00 – 27.99 percent.
