The results of the survey, which sheds light on the expectations of the markets, continued to increase inflation expectation. There is a slight rise in exchange rate expectations. Expectations for the growth of the Turkish economy declined.
Market participants’ expectation of consumer prices at the end of the year increased from 29.98 percent to 30.35 percent. Dollar/TL expectation rose from 43,60 TL to 43,70 TL.
The result of the Market Participants Survey is as follows;
“In the period of May 2025, when the probability estimates of the participants were evaluated 12 months after the participants, it is expected that the CPI will increase in the range of 20.00 – 22.99 percent, 36.65 percent, with 23.00 – 25.99 percent, and 26.00 – 28.99 percent.
According to the assessment based on point estimates (3) in the same survey period, 16.67 percent of the participants are in the range of 20.00 – 22.99 percent of their expectations, 36.67 percent of the expectations of 23.00 – 25.99 percent, 38.33 percent of their expectations are 26.00 – 28.99 percent.
In the period of May 2025, when the participants’ probability forecasts for 24 months after the participants were evaluated, it is expected that the CPI will increase between 15.82 percent probability of 13.00 – 15.99 percent, 32.45 percent, 16.00 – 18.99 percent, 28.90 percent.
According to the assessment based on point estimates (3) in the same survey period, 14.81 percent of the participants in the range of 13.00 – 15.99 percent of the expectations, 29.63 percent of the expectations of 16.00 – 18.99 percent, percent
It is observed that 37.04 is between 19.00 – 21.99 percent.
The participants’ current monthly-end interest rate expectation in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market was 46.00 percent in the previous survey period, while 49.00 percent during the survey period. CBRT One week repo tender interest rate
The ratio was 39.24 percent in the previous survey period, while the rate of three months was 42.96 percent.
Participants’ expectation of the current year -end exchange rate (US dollar/TL) was 43,60 TL in the previous survey period, while this survey period was 43,70 TL. After 12 months, the exchange rate expectation was 46.62 TL during the previous survey period, while in this survey period was 46,62 TL.
The growth expectation of the participants in the GDP 2025 was 3.0 percent in the previous survey period, while in this survey period was 2.9 percent. GDP 2026 growth expectation was 3.8 percent in the previous survey period, while this survey period was 3.7 percent. “
