Uncertainties in global markets, increasing geopolitical tensions, weakened dollar, the US’s expanding budget deficit and interest rates will be reduced, as well as the purchases of central banks, the price of gold ounces leads to a successive level.
In addition to secure port assets, gold, increasing uncertainty, as well as geopolitical risks, continues to break the record due to the impact of US President Donald Trump’s concerns about the possible consequences of aggressive customs duties policies and the threat of Trump’s global order of disrupting a wider scale. Following the first psychological limit of the ounce of gold on March 14, the new record of the precious metal is remarkable.
The new year, starting from 2 thousand 623 dollars of gold’s ounce of gold, since the beginning of the year has gained more than $ 400, this year has renewed 18 times. While the price of ounce of gold rose by 27 percent last year, this year increased by more than 15 percent. In the last 10 years, it has increased by more than 130 percent. Yesterday, the price of ounce of gold reached the record by reaching 3 thousand 57.31 dollars.
Analysts have considered the rise series under the richard Nixon in the last months underneath the “third largest bull market” since Richard Nixon terminated it on August 15, 1971 (the separation of the dollar from the gold standard).
4 factors with impact on price
Trump’s developments in customs tariff policy lead to uncertainty among investors, increasing the US’s potentially growing budget deficit, increasing the gold reserves of the world’s leading central banks due to uncertainties related to the global economy and increasing geopolitical tensions.
The fact that some non -Western countries, such as China and India, also want to use gold purchases to protect themselves geopolitically against the possible sanctions of the United States is shown as the 4th factor that directs the price of gold.
Customs tariffs
The US concerns about import tariffs, the potential impacts of these tariffs on global economic growth and inflation, and the increase in geopolitical uncertainties support the price of gold. In the light of increasing uncertainty in climbing geopolitical tensions, rising trade tariffs and financial markets, investors see this under increasingly looking for more stability.
While the global trade conflict affects the supply chains in the gold market, market participants, who are concerned about import taxes on valuable metals, have recently shifted their Golden ingots from London to New York. In fact, some analysts claim that it causes new records under gold transfers to the United States.
Geopolitical Risks
According to the World Golden Council (WGC) modeling, the geopolitical risk was one of the most important price factors under February. The Israeli army disrupted the ceasefire on 19 January and launched a violent attack on the Gaza Strip on March 18, and the uncertainty about the consequences of the agreement between US President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin as a safe port.
Washington, Moscow and Kiev make different comments on the content of the agreement and the possibility of success. In an economic environment characterized by a high level of uncertainty, the global trade conflict continues to worry about investors.
Most economists evaluate the trade conflict that will fuel inflation by making imported goods more expensive. Stating that a global trade war will harm economic growth, economists say that conflicts are threatened to harm the US economy, the world’s largest economy.
While the main driving force for the price of gold ounces is a higher level of uncertainty, Trump’s unpredictable customs tariff policy and the US approach to Russia are more uncertainty for investors.
US budget deficit
Analysts are seen as the second factor that supports the price of gold upwardly supporting the US concerns about the potentially growing budget deficit. As of February, the 5th month of the 2025 fiscal year in the USA, the total budget deficit increased by 38 percent compared to the same period of the previous year and reached $ 1.15 trillion.
Central Bank purchases
According to WGC’s “2024 Gold Request Tendencies” report, the Central banks’ demands to the protection of geopolitical and economic risk and to diversify their portfolios and to diversify their portfolios continue to increase in the medium and long term.
While the major central banks also have a large amount of US bonds, it is noteworthy that many of them shift their portfolios towards them in recent months.
In 2024, the Gold demand reached unprecedented levels with the interest of central banks and private investors, the effect of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, such as fear of inflation or the collapse of global trade. Central Banks continued their aggressive purchase strategies in 2024 and bought more than 1000 tons of gold for the third time. Central banks, which received a total of 1051 tons of gold in 2023, added 1045 tons of gold to their reserves last year.
The gold purchases of the central banks were one of the main reasons why Ones Gold Break on a record. Central banks’ gold purchase and high rate of reserve retention tendency is due to the economic risks that may occur in reserve money economies and increased geopolitical tensions.
The gold reserve is defined as the part of a country’s money reserves, which are held by central banks in the form of gold ingots. These reserves serve as protecting against economic uncertainty and can be used as a means of payment in times of crisis.
While the World Bank advises the central banks to have gold up to 22 percent in their reserves, the gold reserves in some central banks’ portfolios is highly above this figure. According to the Council’s survey, this tendency of the central banks will continue this year. 69 percent of the central banks participating in the survey announced that it wants to increase the golden rate in their portfolios in the next 5 years due to inflation and geopolitical risks.
China continues to purchase gold
According to the World Golden Council data, the Chinese Halk Bank took a 6 -month interruption of 18 -month uninterrupted gold purchasing last year in order to remove its reserves from the dollar and to protect against the depreciation in the exchange rate and started to buy again in November 2024.
China Halk Bank, which is the most eager to buy the golden banks, continued its monthly purchases again, while 5 tons of gold purchased in February. At the end of February, China’s official gold reserves reached the highest level recorded with 2,290 tons.
This made up 5.9 percent of the country’s total reserves. China’s gold reserves increased by 10 tons in the January-February period of 2025. The purchases of China Halk Bank and other central banks were effective in the very strong price increase in gold in the last 2 years.
Meanwhile, entrances to physical gold -supported ETFs (stock exchange investment fund), a popular tool for major investors in the United States and Europe. According to WGC data, global physical -supported gold ETFs were $ 9.4 billion in February. This has been recorded as the strongest entrance since March 2022.
On the other hand, in recent weeks, many banks and analysts have increased price targets for gold.
Global Trade War Concerns
Ing Mix Strategist Ewa Manthey said in his assessment of the issue that increasing safe port demand and global trade war concerns support the ounce price of gold.
Manthey pointed out that customs tariff concerns with higher inflation and slower economic growth increases demand for safe port assets such as gold. He said.
Manthey emphasized that the price of ounce of gold reached record levels in succession with the influence of trade tensions, central bank purchases and entry into ETF assets. evaluated.
