While global markets are following a mixed course with uncertainties arising from geopolitical risks arising from the US/Israel-Iran War, all eyes are on the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran, which are expected to take place in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.
Yesterday, while a sales-oriented outlook came to the fore in global markets due to the geopolitical tensions that escalated again in the Middle East, a retreat was observed in oil prices as hopes increased that Iran could participate in negotiations with the USA in Islamabad. This situation led to a decrease, albeit limited, in the risk perception in global markets.
Hopes that tensions between the parties would ease limited the negative reactions seen in the markets.
Analysts stated that markets did not react as pessimistically to negative news as feared. Stating that the markets remain reluctant to price negative scenarios, analysts said that the news coming from Iran will be decisive on the direction of the markets.
If the Strait of Hormuz is opened, it is predicted that the decline in oil, urea, fertilizer, aluminum and natural gas, even if not as much as before the war, will be among the developments that can be priced positively.
The fact that the current ceasefire period will expire also keeps the possibility of geopolitical risks escalating again. Meanwhile, Pakistani officials claimed that despite the tension in the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian delegation will participate in the second round of negotiations with the USA in the capital Islamabad.
US President Donald Trump also stated yesterday that US Vice President JD Vance will go to Pakistan and the negotiations are planned to start on Tuesday.
While the markets continue to focus on the developments in the Middle East, the statements of Kevin Warsh, who was nominated by Trump for the presidency of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), are also followed.
The text of the opening speech to be made by Warsh, the former Board Member of the bank whose candidacy for the Fed chairmanship will be discussed today in the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee of the US Senate, was shared.
Warsh stated that he was determined to preserve the independence of monetary policy. With expectations that a diplomatic solution can be achieved between the USA and Iran, the barrel price of Brent oil is at the level of 90.3 dollars with a decrease of 0.18 percent.
As investors hold on to a cautious attitude, the US 10-year bond interest rate remains flat at 4.25 percent, and the dollar index is at 98.1 with a limited increase. As the dollar maintains its strength, an ounce of gold is traded at $4,789, decreasing by 0.7 percent.
Analysts stated that a positive outcome from the negotiations could support gold prices. The New York stock exchange completed the first trading day of the week with a decline as tensions between the USA and Iran escalated again.
With these developments, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.01 percent, the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.24 percent and the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.26 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day with an increase.
With the escalation of US-Iran tensions, a sales-oriented trend came to the fore in European markets yesterday. Analysts said European stocks are no longer as attractive to investors as they were a few months ago, due to rising energy costs and rising valuations.
Shares of sectors selling luxury goods from Europe fell as geopolitical tensions and demand concerns negatively affected the market sentiment.
French fashion and luxury clothing company LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton lost 1.77 percent, French luxury consumer brand Hermes International lost 2.58 percent, and another French luxury goods company Kering lost 2.13 percent.
Declines were also prominent in airline and tourism companies. The shares of the German airline Lufthansa decreased by 3.42 percent, the shares of the British airline EasyJet decreased by 3.1 percent, and the shares of the German international tourism company TUI decreased by 3.14 percent.
On the other hand, according to the data of the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the country increased by 2.5 percent in March compared to the previous month. This rate was recorded as the highest monthly increase since August 2022. In Germany, PPI for March decreased by 0.2 percent on an annual basis.
With these developments, yesterday the FTSE 100 index in England lost 0.55 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany lost 1.15 percent, the CAC 40 index in France lost 1.12 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy lost 1.36 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a mixed trend.
A positive trend is observed in Asian stock markets, excluding China, due to the decrease in geopolitical tensions, the revival in the artificial intelligence sector and the rise in technology stocks.
While the rises in the South Korean stock market attracted attention, the shares of semiconductor company SK Hynix increased by more than 4.5 percent. Analysts said that in South Korea, not only the technology but also the stocks of the defense and energy equipment sectors were effective in the sharp rise in the country’s stock market.
On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to refrain from increasing interest rates next week, as the decreasing likelihood of the US/Israel-Iran War ending in the short term increases uncertainties regarding the economic and inflation outlook in Japan.
With these developments, the dollar/yen parity is at 159 with an increase of 0.1 percent.
With these developments, near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan gained 1.2 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea gained 2.3 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 0.1 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China lost 0.2 percent.
In South Korea, the Kospi index reached a record level with 6,368.77 points.
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend yesterday, finished the day at 14,484.91 points, losing 0.71 percent of its value.
The April futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) was traded at 16,812.00 points in the last evening session, increasing by 0.36 percent compared to the normal session closing.
While Dollar/TL finished the day horizontally at 44.8689 yesterday, it is traded at 44.8780 at the opening of the interbank market today, just above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that the real sector confidence index and capacity utilization rate will be followed domestically today, and the Zew economic confidence index in Germany, retail sales and pending housing sales in the USA will be followed abroad, and noted that technically, 14,400 and 14,300 points in the BIST 100 index are support, while 14,600 and 14,700 points are resistance.
