While global markets continued their sales-heavy trend despite Nvidia’s positive balance sheet results yesterday, today all eyes turned to the growth to be announced in the US and the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which the US Federal Reserve (Fed) takes into account as an indicator of inflation.
Analysts stated that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to be announced in the US today is expected to have an impact on asset prices, and that the signals to be received from the personal consumption expenditure price index, which the Fed takes into account as an inflation indicator, may also affect the pricing of the steps the bank will take in the coming period.
According to data released yesterday in the US, the average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage (housing loan) in the US decreased from 6.50 percent last week to 6.44 percent, falling to the lowest level since April 2023, while mortgage applications increased by 0.5 percent.
While Fed members, who continue to give verbal guidance, made statements yesterday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that it is time to take action on interest rate cuts, but he wanted to be sure.
While it is almost certain in money market pricing that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year, predictions that a 50 basis point rate cut will be made at the meetings in November or December are gaining strength.
On the corporate side, California-based chipmaker Nvidia’s revenue exceeded market expectations with $30 billion in the three-month period ending July 28, reaching a record level.
The company’s net profit also increased by 168 percent annually to $16.6 billion in the quarter in question, while its earnings per share, which was 25 cents in the same period last year, rose to 67 cents in this period.
Analysts noted that the possibility of a delay in the production of Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell chips caused selling pressure on the company despite the positive financial results announced, and said the company’s shares fell about 7 percent in futures markets after the session.
With these developments, the US 10-year bond interest rate was balanced at 3.84 percent yesterday and the dollar index was balanced at 101.
The ounce price of gold is trading at $2,519, 0.6 percent above the previous close, while the barrel price of Brent oil is trading at $77.7, up 0.5 percent.
Yesterday, the Dow Jones index fell 0.39 percent, the S&P 500 index fell 0.60 percent and the Nasdaq index fell 1.12 percent. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day with a mixed course.
While a buying-heavy trend was prominent in European stock markets yesterday, except for the UK, eyes in the region turned to the inflation data to be announced in Germany.
Analysts stated that it is almost certain that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates at least twice by the end of the year, and that signals from data to be released in the region could open the door to a third interest rate cut.
According to data released yesterday, corporate loans in the Eurozone, which grew by 0.7 percent on an annual basis in June, increased by 0.6 percent last month, while consumer loans increased by 0.5 percent compared to the same period in 2023.
On the other hand, the Employment Barometer announced by the Economic Research Institute (Ifo) in Germany, which was at 95.3 in July, decreased to 94.8 points in August, and in the statement made regarding the survey results, it was stated that companies in Germany were more cautious in their personnel planning.
Yesterday, the DAX 40 index in Germany rose by 0.54 percent, the CAC 40 index in France rose by 0.16 percent and the FTSE MIB in Italy rose by 0.30 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in England fell by 0.02 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.
While selling pressure emerged in the semiconductor sector in Asia after Nvidia’s financial results announced today, all eyes turned to the inflation data to be announced in Japan tomorrow.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasized in his statement yesterday that the bank will closely monitor developments in financial markets and said that if the economy and prices continue to grow as expected, the tightening of monetary policy will continue.
In addition, due to Typhoon Shanshan affecting the region in Japan, Toyota Motor Company decided to suspend operations in its factories across the country yesterday.
According to data released today in the region, the August consumer confidence index in Japan was 36.7, below expectations.
On the corporate side, the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer BYD’s net profit reached 9.1 billion yuan ($1.27 billion) in the second quarter, up 32.8 percent year-on-year despite its aggressive pricing policy.
By the close of trading, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index were down 0.1 percent, South Korea’s Kospi index was down 0.9 percent and China’s Shanghai composite index was down 0.4 percent.
Yesterday, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which moves in a narrow band, closed the day at 9,757.16 points, up 0.09 percent compared to the previous close.
On the other hand, there will be no trading on Borsa Istanbul tomorrow due to the Victory Day holiday on Friday, August 30.
Analysts reminded that today is the maturity date for index and stock futures contracts and reported that volatility could be high due to position carrying and closing transactions.
On the other hand, in the statement made after the Economic Coordination Board (EKK) meeting held yesterday under the chairmanship of Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, it was stated that the positive results of the implemented Medium Term Program (MTP) have started to be obtained in many areas and in this context, the disinflation process that started in June continues.
USD/TL, which closed at 34.0569 with a 0.1 percent increase yesterday, is being traded at 34.1424 with a 0.3 percent increase at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that an intensive data agenda will be followed today, primarily the Commercial Real Estate Price Index and weekly money and banking statistics in Turkey, and inflation in Germany, growth in the US and personal consumption expenditures data for the second quarter abroad, and noted that from a technical perspective, the 9,850 and 10,000 levels are resistance in the BIST 100 index, while 9,650 and 9,500 points are support.
