In global markets, US President Donald Trump’s frequent change in customs duties policies makes it difficult for investors to make decisions, while concerns that the tension between the US and China will climb high risk perception.
The steps of the US administration on tariffs and their possible effects on the economy continue to be the biggest source of uncertainty in the markets.
Although Trump suspends the tariffs for some trade partners for 90 days, the fact that he maintains the “tariff duel” with China deepens questions about where the restoration of the world’s largest economies will reach.
On the other hand, while the fight against inflation continues throughout the world, the fact that tariffs suppress global growth and increase stagnation concerns lead investors to search for a safe harbor.
Analysts said that Trump has postponed additional tariffs for other trade partners except China, but the recession concerns are alleviated, but did not end.
Although the effects of tariffs can be seen later, although inflation in the United States, analysts said that the predictions that the inflation can accelerate in April came to the forefront.
– We would love to make an agreement with China
With these developments, yesterday, the White House clarified the tariff rate to China. The White House reported that the total tariff ratio reached 145 percent when it was included in the Fentanyl crisis.
In the cabinet meeting, Trump claimed that China has benefited from the United States a lot for a long time tariffs, “We will see what will happen with China, we would love to make an agreement with them.” he said.
Trump, who did not answer the question about whether Chinese President Shi Cinping directly interviews with Shi Cinping, gave a message that they are always open to contact with Beijing.
– For the first time since 2020, the CPI decreased on a monthly basis.
While the concerns that the US tariff steps would revive inflationist pressures in the country, the data announced in the US yesterday showed that inflation continues to slow down.
Accordingly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in March, while on the annual basis, 2.4 percent took place below expectations. Thus, for the first time since May 2020, CPI decreased on a monthly basis. The core CPI, which does not include variable energy and food prices, increased in March with 0.1 percent monthly and 2.8 per year.
The budget deficit of the US federal government decreased by about 32 percent in March to $ 161 billion compared to the same month of the last year.
While the US Federal Bank (FED) officials were also followed, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that tariffs are a stagflative shock, and the FED brought price stability and maximum employment targets.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, higher than expected tariffs will probably increase both unemployment and inflation, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins will increase the inflation in the near term and suppress the growth, he said.
While the forecasts that the FED will make the first interest rate reduction of the year in the pricing in the money markets, the Bank will go to a total of 4 interest rate cuts throughout the year.
In the light of these developments, the US 10 -year bond interest rate rose to 4.44 percent, while 2 -year and 5 -year bond rates decreased.
– The dollar index is in the lowest of about 2 years
Growth concerns in the United States and concerns that inflation will rise again in the near future caused a decrease in confidence in the US economy and a decline in the dollar index, while Japanese new and Switzerland franc has strengthened.
The dollar/yen parity declined to 143.1 with a depreciation of 1 percent and saw its lowest level since September 2024. Swiss Franc has reached its highest level since 2011 against the dollar.
The Dollar Index tested 100 for the first time since July 2023, while it is currently at 100.1 with a decrease of 0.3 percent at the moment.
With the influence of increasing global risks, the price of ounce of gold, which reinforces the safe port feature, continues to be traded at record levels. In the last 3 working days, the price of ounce of gold rising to 3 thousand 220 dollars, 3 thousand 213 dollars was balanced.
The barrel price of Brent oil decreased by 0.6 percent.
The S&P 500 index at the New York Stock Exchange yesterday lost 3.46 percent, the NASDAQ index 4.31 percent and the Dow Jones index depreciated by 2.50 percent. Index futures contracts in the United States started the new day with a positive course.
– “negotiation” doping in European stock exchanges
While the news flow to postpone tariffs yesterday in the European stock exchanges support the tensions will decrease, the optimism supported the share markets, while the eyes turned to the speech of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB).
EU Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen yesterday from the social media account, Trump, except China, except for the additional tariffs for 90 days after the announcement of the additional tariffs, shared, shared.
Trump, the statements of the tariffs on the tariffs and the negotiations that they want to give a chance to emphasize Von Der Leniyen, “We will see the strong support of our member states while completing the acceptance of the EU counter -measures for 90 days.” He said.
Von Der Leyen said that if the negotiations do not produce satisfactory results, Von Der Leyen said, “Preparatory work continues for more counter -measure. All options are on the table.” evaluated.
On the other hand, the decision to start negotiations with the EU and United Arab Emirates (UAE) free trade agreement was also effective in increasing the investor appetite.
Yesterday, DAX 40 in Germany 4.53 percent, the CAC 40 index in France is 3.83 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK 3.04 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy won 4.72 percent. In Europe, index futures contracts started the new day with a positive course.
China’s Trade Acceleration Steps
While a mixed course is dominant in the Asian stock exchanges, the developments in the region between the United States and China in the region are closely monitored.
Following that the US declares that the tariffs for China were actually 145 percent, the Chinese government was positive in the markets to make negotiations to revive global trade.
Chinese Trade Minister Vang Vintao met with Maros Sefcovic, a member of the EU commission in charge of trade, and Malaysia, the President of ASEAN Tengku Zafrul Aziz.
According to the statement made by the Ministry, Vang, EU Commission member Sefcovic in a video conference meeting, the installation of the pricing of electric vehicles on the immediate initiation of negotiations and strengthening the investment ties in the automobile sector.
Emphasizing that they are ready to start negotiations on access to the market, the parties stated that they support the maintenance of dialogue to reduce the foreign trade deficit.
During the meeting, concerns about the directions of Chinese goods that could not be sold to this country after the increase in the tariff of the EU, the USA, and the possibility of cheap manufacturing products to invade the continental markets were also discussed.
However, the Japan government considered US President Donald Trump’s decision to stop its customs tariffs for 90 days for countries that do not retaliate.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan in Japan, 4.3 percent, KOSPI index in South Korea decreased by 1 percent, while Hong Kong in Hong Kong increased by 0.9 percent and the Shanghai compound index increased by 0.3 percent in China.
Lightning: “We will manage to reduce inflation”
BIST 100 index in Borsa İstanbul, which followed a traveling course yesterday in the country, completed the day at 9.338.58 points by gaining 0.68 percent.
Dollar/TL, yesterday, 0.1 percent decreased from 37,9200, today, today at the opening of the interbank market of 0.3 percent of the previous closing of 38,0680 is traded.
On the other hand, the Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, who participated in the promotion activity of the OECD Turkey Review Report within the scope of the “Rising Markets Forum” organized by the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization (OECD) yesterday in Istanbul, said that the fluctuations experienced in global fields may create downward risks on growth.
Lightning “However, we will ensure expenditure discipline in public finances, we will manage to reduce inflation. We do not have direct control over income, but even though the expectation of growth is low, this will draw off the internal demand and therefore inflation. So as a result, we will manage to reduce inflation.” he said.
Evaluating the developments in oil prices Şimşek, “Brent Petroleum remains below $ 65 -year -end inflation, the target is approximately 1 to 1.6 points below. If the oil prices continue at this level, the current account deficit may fall below 1.5 percent compared to national income,” he said.
Analysts, today, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) market participants survey, abroad producer Price Index (PPI) in the United States, Lagarde’s speech in the Euro Region, inflation in Germany and the UK industrial production data will be monitored, technically 9.500 and 9.600 points in the BIST 100 Index, 9.500 and 9.600 points were supported.
