Global markets started to recover as expectations of a new agreement in the Middle East eased concerns about energy supply and the selling wave in bond markets calmed down.
News that US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a gradual agreement that will allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz curbed the rise in oil prices and contributed to a slight decrease in the selling pressure in global bond markets.
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran is not seeking war with the United States and is willing to reach a negotiated agreement.
With these developments, the New York Stock Exchange compensated for some of its two-day losses, led by technology, and on the new trading day, it was seen that the risk appetite on the Asian side increased in the Japanese markets.
However, even if oil prices decline, the concern that risks related to energy supply may trigger inflation through the cost channel and lead central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to accelerate the tightening of monetary policies continues to be a risk factor in the markets.
The US 10-year bond interest, which reached the peak of the last 19 years by rising to 5.23 percent yesterday, stabilized at 5.19 percent on the new day, while the barrel price of Brent oil decreased by 0.9 percent to 105.6 dollars.
Analysts stated that sharp fluctuations in oil prices brought about significant volatilities in asset prices, and that this situation continues to negatively affect production activity around the world.
On the other hand, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday was also in the focus of investors. Trump spoke highly of the relations between the two countries at the dinner he hosted at the White House in honor of Chinese President Xi.
Emphasizing that relations between the USA and China have “improved” recently, Trump said, “As leaders of the two countries, we know that we represent different systems, but the ties between our people continue. Our relations have never been better.” he said.
Chinese President Xi stated that the two countries “agreed on a new trade arrangement.” These developments helped to eliminate the question marks regarding global trade to some extent.
On the macroeconomic data side, the current account deficit in the USA increased by 15.7 percent in the second quarter of the year, reaching 246 billion dollars. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the USA decreased to 197 thousand in the week ending September 19, below market expectations.
Analysts stated that the decrease in unemployment benefit applications indicates that the US economy maintains its ability to create employment, and noted that the strong employment outlook stands out as a factor that increases the upside risks on inflation.
New housing sales in the country increased by 6.4 percent monthly in August, exceeding expectations. As hawkish expectations regarding the Fed continued, the dollar continued to strengthen against other currencies. The dollar index increased by 0.1 percent yesterday and reached 101.3, continuing its rise for the fourth trading day. The index remains horizontal on the new day.
The ounce of gold, whose alternative cost increased with the strengthening dollar and rising bond interest, decreased by 0.3 percent yesterday to 4 thousand 273 dollars, and on the new trading day it found buyers at 4 thousand 260 dollars, with a 0.3 percent decrease.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index remained flat, while the Dow Jones index fell by 0.31 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day mixed.
While European stock markets followed a bearish trend yesterday, energy prices, which remained high due to geopolitical uncertainties, had an impact on the regional markets.
On the other hand, the news flow that the USA will restrict diesel exports highlighted the assessments that European economies, which are currently tight on energy, may be negatively affected by the process.
While geopolitical developments in the region are closely followed, it was reported that an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack was carried out in the industrial zone in the Perm region of Russia, where Permnefteorgsintez, one of the country’s largest oil refineries, is located. In addition, the Novoshahtinsk Oil Refinery, which was damaged in an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack in the Rostov region of the country, temporarily stopped its operations.
Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) Council approved the transfer of approximately 3 billion euros to the country within the scope of the Ukraine Fund. In the written statement made by the EU Council, it was stated that it was decided to make the 8th regular payment within the scope of the Ukraine Fund, which was established to support the reconstruction and reforms of Ukraine.
In the statement, it was stated that approximately 800 million euros of the amount to be transferred within the scope of the 8th regular payment of the fund will be covered from the Ukraine Support Loan for the first time.
In addition, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham stated that they would not remain silent in the face of Israel’s actions in the West Bank and Gaza and said, “Too many people, including children, have died. Very little aid can enter the region. This situation has been going on for a very long time.” he said.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England decreased by 0.24 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 0.85 percent, the CAC 40 index in France decreased by 0.52 percent and the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 0.57 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day mixed.
While Asian stock markets follow a sales-oriented trend on the last trading day of the week, excluding Japan, markets in South Korea and China will be closed for holidays. While transaction volumes remained low due to some of the regional markets being closed, risk appetite remained alive in Japan, which was open.
On the other hand, Chinese President Xi’s visit to the USA and his meetings with Trump continue to remain the focus of regional markets.
Analysts noted that although the extension of the US-China trade ceasefire until January 10 is positive, significant progress on critical issues such as rare earth elements continues to pose some risks in the field of trade.
In addition to these developments, the rise in the dollar/yen parity in the last 5 trading days has reversed today with the expectations that the Japanese economic management may intervene in the country’s currency, the yen. The parity is at 158.18, with a 0.4 percent decrease.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 1.3 percent near the closing, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell by 1.8 percent.
FUND STATEMENT FROM PRESIDENT ERDOĞAN
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend yesterday, finished the day at 12,888.33 points, losing 2.74 percent of its value.
The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) rose by 0.07 percent in last night’s session compared to the normal session closing.
On the other hand, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in his assessment of the fund investigations, said, “Our judiciary launched a comprehensive investigation in the same way, and there were some detentions and arrests. I would like this to be known. Whoever is responsible will be held accountable before the law.” he said.
While Dollar/TL completed the day at 48.8910 yesterday, it is traded at 48.9580 at the opening of the interbank market today, 0.2 percent above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm in the country today, and that the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany, durable goods orders in the USA, Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations will be followed abroad, and noted that technically, 12,800 and 12,700 points in the BIST 100 index are support and 13,000 and 13,100 points are resistance.
