In global markets, the search for direction comes to the fore as the selling pressure caused by concerns that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may turn to an aggressive tightening process by the end of the year in order to ensure price stability has eased.
The evident effects of the war in the Middle East on economies are leading central banks to adopt a tighter monetary policy stance than expected.
While the signals indicating that the cost pressures created by the war, especially on energy prices, may not be temporary are sharpening in macroeconomic data, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and the final growth data for the first quarter, which are closely followed by the Fed, to be announced in the USA this week, are of critical importance for the markets.
Expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates twice by the end of the year have strengthened in the pricing in money markets. Analysts noted that growth data and personal consumption expenditures to be announced tomorrow may be effective in shaping the forecasts for the Fed.
On the other hand, controlled normalization efforts in the Strait of Hormuz alleviated concerns about oil supply. The barrel price of Brent oil decreased by 1.4 percent to 76.6 dollars yesterday. Brent oil continued its losses on the new day, decreasing by 0.5 percent to 76.3 dollars, reaching its lowest level since March 2.
While developments in the Middle East are closely followed, the US Senate approved the war powers bill aimed at preventing military action against Iran. The Senate’s action is considered a reaction to President Donald Trump’s own decision to go to war on Iran. The expectation that this development could reduce the tension in the region supported the easing of selling pressure in the markets.
In addition to these developments, US President Trump emphasized that Iran “fully and completely consents” to high-level inspections of its nuclear program. Stating that the negotiations would be over in a scenario where the Iranian side did not agree to this, Trump said, “Based on these and other important concessions made by Iran, I agreed to allow the Strait of Hormuz to remain open and the naval blockade to no longer be implemented.” he said.
On the macroeconomic data side, the US manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached its highest level in 49 months with 55.7 in June, exceeding market expectations. The service sector PMI recorded the highest level in 4 months with 51.3 in June, and the composite PMI covering the manufacturing and service sectors recorded the highest level in 5 months with 52.2.
On the corporate side, the financial results to be announced today by chip manufacturer Micron are being closely watched by investors. The company’s financial results are expected to shed light on questions regarding the extent to which artificial intelligence and technology investments are reflected on the revenue side.
With these developments, the US 10-year bond interest rate remained horizontal at 4.49 percent, while the dollar index maintained its strong stance and reached 101.5, thus testing its highest level since May 13, 2025.
Increasing predictions of an interest rate increase for the Fed, the strengthening of the dollar and the decrease in artificial intelligence stocks creating a need for collateral continue to pressure the ounce price of gold. An ounce of gold lost 1.1 percent in value, falling to 4 thousand 66 dollars, approaching the lowest levels of the last 7 months.
On the other hand, SpaceX’s announcement of its first unsecured senior bond sale the other day also raised questions about the possibility of borrowing and cash need pressure on artificial intelligence and technology companies. The shares of the company, which recorded its worst daily performance with a 16 percent decrease the previous day, rose 1 percent yesterday.
Alphabet’s shares fell by 1 percent, Nvidia’s shares by 4 percent, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel’s shares by 6 percent, Marvell Technology’s shares by 9 percent and Micron Technology’s shares by 13 percent.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.44 percent, the Nasdaq index by 2.22 percent and the Dow Jones index by 0.09 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day mixed.
European stock markets were negative due to current developments as well as recession concerns arising from signals of slowdown in economic activity.
According to preliminary data announced by S&P Global, the composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) covering the manufacturing and service sectors in Germany decreased by 0.8 points to 48 points in June. The data, which fell to its lowest level since December 2024 and remained below the growth threshold of 50 points, pointed out that the contraction in the German economy continued.
Eurozone PMI data for June presented a similar picture. The manufacturing industry PMI in the region, which was 51.6 in May, decreased to 51.3 in June. Thus, the manufacturing industry PMI fell to its lowest level in the last 4 months. The Eurozone composite PMI, which was 48.5 in May, increased to 49.5 in June and reached the highest level in the last 3 months.
On the other hand, geopolitical developments in the region are also being monitored. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that they are ready to continue negotiations with Ukraine from where they left off and said, “We prefer the issue to be resolved through political diplomatic means.” he said.
This development created optimism that geopolitical tensions in the region might ease somewhat.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England decreased by 0.09 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 0.98 percent, the CAC 40 index in France decreased by 0.71 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 1.46 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a negative trend.
While it was seen that the selling pressure in the USA and Europe subsided on the Asian side on the new day, the recovery in the Kospi index in South Korea attracted attention.
Signs that tanker traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually returning to normal contributed to the recovery of risk appetite in the regional markets.
On the other hand, the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) were published. The minutes revealed that some of the members expressed their opinion that the central bank should increase interest rates further.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 0.6 percent near the closing, while the Shanghai composite index in China and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong remained flat. The Kospi index in South Korea increased by 3.1 percent.
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend yesterday, finished the day at 14,539.61 points, losing 1.29 percent of its value.
The June futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) remained horizontal in the evening session last night compared to the normal session close.
While Dollar/TL closed yesterday at 46.4700, today it is traded at 46.4930 at the opening of the interbank market, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that the data agenda will be calm in the country today, and that the Ifo business confidence index in Germany, weekly mortgage applications in the USA, current account balance and new housing sales will be followed abroad, and noted that technically, 14,400 and 14,300 points in the BIST 100 index are support and 14,700 and 14,800 points are resistance.
