Despite the increasing perception of risk after the US credit rating has been reduced, a mixed course in the global markets is followed by the developments in the Russian-Ukraine War and the optimism against the US partners with its partners.
While the role of tariff negotiations with the US trade partners and the mediator of the Russian-Ukraine War is closely monitored by investors, optimisms that may decrease geopolitical risks have an impact on asset pricing.
US President Donald Trump said that his phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin was very good and announced that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately.
Stating that the tone and spirit of the speech is perfect, Trump said that Russia wanted to trade with the US when the war ended and that he had joined it.
Analysts stated that the Trump-Putin meeting was closely monitored by investors, and that the decrease in global conflicts would increase the risk appetite and that the reconstruction of the regions free of war could lead to important commercial and economic opportunities.
Analysts stated that Russia’s re -financial and commercial development of relations with the US and the European side can support the decline in energy prices, the decline in manufacturing costs and energy expenses may be effective in global disinfiation.
– Fed officials in the “Wait-Gorus” approach
On the other hand, uncertainties for the effects of tariffs on the US economy continue to be one of the main risks, while the US Federal Bank (FED) officials’ statements on the effects of tariffs are followed.
New York FED President John Williams, who made statements yesterday, said that the fluctuations in the tariffs have caused the uncertainty to continue. Williams said that the FED kept interest rates fixed by the uncertainty so far, and that the course of the future may not become clear for months.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic pointed out that there is too much uncertainty, to see where this will reach 3 to 6 months, he said. FED Vice President Philip Jefferson stressed that the possible increase in prices does not turn into permanent inflation.
Following these developments, the FED will go to the first interest rate cut in the pricing in the money markets in September, while a total of 2 interest rate cuts will be made throughout the year.
– A main course of buying in US bond markets is observed
With the influence of optimisms for geopolitical developments and commercial negotiations on the US bond markets yesterday, a weighted course came to the fore yesterday, while Moody’s reduced the US credit rating up to 4.57 percent of the US 10 -year bond interest rate, about 11 basis points are stretched by 4.46 percent.
The price of ounce of gold yesterday with a 0.8 percent rise to $ 3 thousand 230 dollars, while the new trading day is moving a decline tendency. The price of ounce of gold is currently finding a buyer for 3 thousand 213 dollars with a decrease of 0.6 percent.
The Dollar Index was at 100.4 percent on the new trading day, while the price of Brent oil is currently traded at $ 64.9 with a decrease of 0.2 percent.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index on the New York Stock Exchange increased by 0.09 percent and the Dow Jones index increased by 0.32 percent, while the Nasdaq index was horizontal. Index futures contracts in the United States started the new day negative.
– Inflation data in parallel with expectations in Europe relieved ECB
While a mixed course was followed yesterday in the European stock exchanges, the realization of consumer inflation in parallel with the expectations of April made room for interest rate cuts of the European Central Bank (ECB).
While the concerns of contraction and recession in manufacturing activity in the region continue to be one of the main economic problems, ECB’s strict monetary policy is effective in remaining high financing costs of companies.
The consumer inflation, which was 2.2 percent on an annual basis in March, was realized as 2.2 percent in April in April and provides political width for ECB to continue the interest rate cutting process.
On the other hand, the global impacts of the US tariffs showed the impact on the growth side, while the European Union (EU) Commission reduced this year’s economic growth expectation from 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent and from 1.6 percent to 1.4 percent for next year.
After these developments and inflation data, it is envisaged that 3 basic policy interest rates will reduce 25 basis points in the monetary policy decision of the ECB on June 5th.
With these developments, DAX 40 percent in Germany yesterday increased by 0.70 percent and the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose by 0.17 percent, while the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy fell 1.2 percent. The CAC 40 index in France watched horizontal. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a positive course.
– China reduced the indicator interest rates after 7 months
While a positive course was followed on the Asian side, 1 and 5 -year loan interest rates (LP), which functions in China, went to 10 basis points for the first time after 7 months.
According to the National Interbank Fund Center, the 1 -year loan interest rate was reduced to 3.5 percent of the loan interest rate of 5 years.
The LPR, which has been determined according to the dividend notifications of 18 banks in China, the Central Bank of China (PBOC) on the borrowing interest, has function as an indicator interest since 2019. The 5 -year interest rate for 1 -year loan interest rate for corporate loans is considered a reference for real estate loans.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan, close to closing, KOSPİ index in South Korea, 0.2 percent, Shanghai compound index in China 0.5 percent and Hong Kong in Hong Kong increased by 1.4 percent.
DOMESTIC DATA AGENDA WILL BE FOLLOWED
Borsa Istanbul May 19 Ataturk Commemoration, Youth and Sports Day due to yesterday, while the share market, the transactions dated May 15, today, the transactions on Friday will take place tomorrow.
BIST 100 Index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a travel on Friday, finished the day at 9.668.36 points by gaining a value of 1.33 percent. Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) BIST 30 index -based contract based on the June session on Friday evening session was traded at a score of 11.067.00 according to the closing of the normal session.
Dollar/TL, yesterday, 0.3 percent of the rise of 38,7770’ten closed, today the opening of the interbank market with an increase of 0.1 percent of the previous closing is traded at 38,8340.
Analysts, today, housing price index, short -term external debt statistics, consumer confidence index and international producer price index, abroad, the current balance and consumer confidence index in the euro region will be monitored, technically 9.800 and 9.900 points in the BIST 100 index, 9.600 and 9.500 levels were supported.
