New warnings continue to come against the risk and destruction related to the possible Great Marmara Earthquake. Earthquake experts note that the building stock should be strengthened at every opportunity and that coastal areas are among the places that will be most affected in a possible earthquake. Regarding the ‘Great Earthquake’ expected in the Marmara Sea; Earthquake Expert Prof. Dr. Zeki Hasgür, who gave the example of Bursa, said that an earthquake that would occur in Southern Marmara, especially in Bursa and Gemlik, would cause serious damage in Istanbul, and made important statements regarding the risk of consecutive earthquakes.
130 YEARS HAVE PASSED
Hasgür, who stated that a major earthquake occurs in the region every 120 years, said, “There has been an earthquake gap since 1894. Considering that the North Anatolian Fault moves approximately two and a half centimeters every year in the east-west direction, an earthquake of magnitude 7 and above can occur at any time. Research conducted after the 1999 earthquake, “It was shown that a major earthquake in Marmara was expected to be more than 60 percent likely. This probability is now even higher, but the real problem is the risk of consecutive earthquakes.” He used the expressions.
THE FRIGHTENING SCENARIO
Hasgür stated that the rupture occurred in the Gölcük-centered part of the North Anatolian Fault and that this rupture reached the Kartal District, and continued his words as follows:
“After Kartal, there are regions that did not break between the 7.3 magnitude Şarköy-Mürefte earthquake in 1912 and the 1999 earthquake. Earthquakes can occur in these regions. Also, it is natural to expect major earthquakes in regions such as Bursa and Gemlik. Bursa is located on the southern Marmara segment of the North Anatolian Fault and a major earthquake is expected there. “The successive large earthquakes that occurred on the East Anatolian Fault in Southern Anatolia have pushed the Anatolian Plate westward; in this case, by increasing the rupture energy, it may bring the occurrence of earthquakes in Bursa and Istanbul in the west earlier. There may also be successive triggering on the faults under the sea.”
BE CAREFUL OF THE BEACHES!
“It is important that the structures are built in accordance with the ground. In this case, it is possible to survive the earthquake with less damage. Especially in the filled areas in the coastal areas, that is, in Ataköy, Bakırköy, Kartal, as well as in Bağcılar, the effects of the earthquake will be felt for a longer time.”
WILL FAULTS BE TRIGGERED?
“A possible earthquake in Bursa would have a huge impact on Istanbul and could trigger fault lines. “As individuals and institutions, we must make earthquake preparations and building inspections in advance, and we must take into account ground conditions and building safety risk plans. If an earthquake occurs in Bursa, Istanbul must be on alert for a long time.”
STEEL STRUCTURE PROPOSAL
On the other hand, Earth Scientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür stated that if there are no earthquakes, the world will end and underlined that cities should be made safe: “In new building construction, the number of floors should be reduced and it should be made of light materials. For example, steel is suitable for this. I say steel because all over the world, in earthquake countries, a significant portion of buildings are made of steel. Also, steel buildings are built faster. Putting everything aside, if we are worried about time in preparing Istanbul for an earthquake, it is possible to solve this problem in this way.”
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