The upcoming July will be a month of raises for approximately 6.5 million civil servants and retired civil servants. Civil servants and retired civil servants, whose raise rates have been determined as 7 percent by the Public Servants Arbitration Board, will also be given an inflation difference. Thus, the raise rate will increase. The inflation difference will be calculated based on the part of the inflation in the first half that exceeds 11 percent.
While it became clear that the difference would be made when the inflation rate in the first 4 months was 14.64 percent, clues for the increase rate came with the data announced by the Central Bank last week. Announcing its new inflation report last Thursday, the Central Bank announced that it updated its year-end inflation forecast to 26 percent.
In the first 4 months of this year, inflation was 14.64 percent. In order for the Central Bank’s 26 percent forecast to be realized, monthly inflation must be at an average level of 1.19 percent by the end of the year. In this case, inflation for the first 6 months will be 17.38 percent. Civil servants and retired civil servants will receive a 13.15 percent raise with an inflation difference of 5.75 percent.
Another prediction came from the Market Participants Survey announced by the Central Bank last Friday. In the survey, economists’ inflation forecast was 1.89 percent for May and 1.52 percent for June. In other words, according to the survey, inflation in the first 6 months is expected to be 18.58 percent. This estimate reveals that the July raise for civil servants and retired civil servants may reach 14.31 percent with an inflation difference of 6.83 percent.
