The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) made an upward update on all forecasts in the second inflation report of 2026, announced today.
The biggest increase in forecasts was made in oil prices. The 2026 year-end oil price forecast, which was 60.9 dollars in the previous report, increased to 84.9 dollars in this report.
Oil prices stand out as an important cost monitored for net energy importing countries such as Türkiye. It was stated that the analysis made on the CBRT’s blog page indicates that a 10 percent increase in the Brent oil price ultimately increases consumer inflation by 1 point at the end of 12 months through direct and indirect effects, and the total effect is calculated as approximately 1.2 points within 24 months.
Brent oil has increased by 55 percent since the beginning of the war.
The Central Bank’s 2026 year-end inflation target increased from 16 percent to 24 percent.
