Balts are preparing for possible mass evacuation

In case of Russian attack

Balts are preparing for possible mass evacuation

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be particularly threatened in the event of a Russian attack. Now the people there are learning where they should flee in the event of an attack.

The Baltic states are preparing for a possible Russian troop buildup or attack with plans to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have long been warning their NATO allies of Russian aggression. They point to Russian cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns and the intrusion of Russian fighter jets and drones into the airspace of several EU and NATO states in recent months.

Russia has repeatedly said it has no plans to attack NATO. The Baltic states, which were annexed by the Soviet Union during World War II and declared independence following its collapse in 1990, have doubled their defense spending since Russia’s major attack on Ukraine began in February 2022. Estonia and Latvia share a border with Russia. Latvia, Lithuania and Poland border Belarus, which is closely allied with Russia and served as a staging area during its invasion of Ukraine. The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is also located on the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania.

In Lithuania alone, plans are being made for a possible escape of 400,000 people from the border region. The western Lithuanian city of Kaunas is preparing to accommodate 300,000 people in schools, churches and event halls. Similar efforts are being made in other cities. According to the fire department, collection points have been identified, trains and buses have been assigned and supplies such as toilet paper and cots have been stored in warehouses.

Anyone fleeing by car should be redirected onto side roads in order to keep the main roads clear for their own troops. There is already a map showing the cities where people can seek refuge. Planning was stepped up after the three Baltic states agreed to closer cooperation in civil defense in May.

The scenarios range from acts of sabotage and a sudden influx of migrants to a direct military attack. “It is possible that we will see a massive army on the borders of the Baltics, with the obvious aim of taking all three countries within three days to a week,” said Renatas Pozela, who is involved in the planning as head of the Lithuanian fire department.

A particular concern is the so-called Suwalki Corridor, the strip of land that connects Lithuania with Poland and thus with the other European NATO states. The border is about a hundred kilometers long. It runs between the border triangle of Lithuania-Poland-Belarus in the southeast and the border triangle of Lithuania-Poland-Russia – i.e. Kaliningrad – in the northwest. Russia could try to sever this connection.

Estonia is also planning to evacuate a tenth of its 1.4 million inhabitants. Latvia estimates that a third of its 1.9 million people could leave their homes in an emergency. The preparations are a “very reassuring message to our society that we are ready and planning,” said Lithuanian Deputy Interior Minister Kestutis Budrys to the Reuters news agency. “We did our homework.”