Russia was once considered Armenia’s most important ally. But the small country in the Caucasus is turning more and more to the West. This step carries dangers.
Tobias Schibilla reports from Yerevan.
For more than 30 years, Armenia was Russia’s “backyard”. Soldiers were trained on Russian military equipment, Russian troops guarded the country’s borders, and exports from the small Caucasus republic went almost exclusively to Russia. A large Russian military base near the northern Armenian city of Gyumri served as an important base in the southern Caucasus. Relations between the countries were good.
But the situation has now changed. One reason for this is the changed balance of power in the southern Caucasus: In 2020, Armenia lost around a third of its territory in the war with its neighboring country Azerbaijan – Azerbaijan was supported by Turkey and Israel with arms deliveries, which ensured that Armenia’s outdated army had no chance of being inferior . And Russia, as Armenia’s protecting power, watched idly as Armenia’s territory was reduced and many residents were expelled.
Since then, it has been clear that if there is any doubt, Russia will rather support Azerbaijan. And Armenia must look for new allies in the world. The small Caucasus republic finds these partners primarily in the west – France and the USA are now supplying the country with the weapons systems that Armenia needs to defend itself against Turkey and Azerbaijan, which it supports. But this realignment could become a threat for Armenia, because Putin does not want to share his sphere of influence and certainly does not want to cede it to the West.
Leonid Nersisyan is a military expert at the Applied Policy Research Institute of Armenia. He has been involved in Armenian defense policy for years. “Our cooperation with Russia has been reduced to a minimum,” he explains in an interview with t-online. Although there is still a Russian military base in the country, there is virtually no more cooperation between the Armenian armed forces and the Russians stationed near Gyumri.
To this end, cooperation with other countries has increased significantly. “We now work a lot with France militarily,” says Nersisyan. The major Western power is helping Armenia by bringing arms into the country, training the country’s troops and supporting military reforms. Nersisyan explains that another important partner is India: “The majority of all imported weapon systems currently come from there.” Between 2016 and 2020, Armenia imported weapons systems worth around $500 million from Russia, the expert explains. Imports from France and India are now expected to significantly exceed this mark.
But it is not enough to just replace the weapon systems. “The biggest challenge is training on these systems,” explains Leonid Nersisyan. France and India support Armenia, but the switch to new weapons systems takes time. “In the best case scenario, the changeover should be completed in three or four years,” says the expert.
Military expert: “Our country is very vulnerable”
But what does this mean for the period of Armenia’s reorientation towards the West? “Our country is currently very vulnerable,” explains Nersisyan. Since the 2020 war, when Armenia lost around a third of its territory to Azerbaijan, the border with its neighbor has grown significantly. “We have to constantly guard around 1,000 kilometers.” Armenia is also a long and narrow country. “That means it’s difficult to defend because we have little opportunity to build a strong force in the hinterland.” Although Armenia can better fend off attacks that are limited to one location, “we would have almost no chance in a major war.”
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Azerbaijan is currently supported by Russia. The two countries have significantly expanded their military cooperation in recent years, while Russia and Armenia have grown apart. Leonid Nersisyan sees this as a danger: “In a way, Russia is encouraging Azerbaijan to aggressively target Armenia.”
Comments from the Kremlin show that Russia is taking Armenia’s rapprochement with the West seriously. In July 2024, the Russian foreign secret service SVR broadcast through the Russian state media that the USA was to blame for Armenia’s orientation towards the West. Joe Biden’s government would push the small Caucasus republic to commit “national suicide” by turning to the West. Washington has launched a long-term propaganda campaign against Russia in Armenia in order to strengthen anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia, the Kremlin further claimed.
