While risk appetite decreased in global markets due to concerns that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could turn into violent conflicts again, all eyes turned to the interest rate decision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) in the country and the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) abroad.
The new chapter in Middle East tensions increases uncertainty in the markets, making it difficult for investors to make decisions.
Fears that the US and Iranian elements in the region may return to a climate of conflict and that the parties may become harsher in the new phase of the war lead to continued risk pricing in the markets.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that additional “self-defense” attacks launched against various targets in Iran on June 10, upon the instructions of US President Donald Trump, have been completed. US President Trump stated that if there is no agreement, attacks against Iran will continue “severely”.
Iranian state television reported that the Muvaffak Salti military base in Jordan, where US forces are stationed, was targeted with missile attacks.
Following the announcement by the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the unit of the Iranian Armed Forces conducting the war, that the passage through the Strait of Hormuz was completely closed following the US attacks on the south of the country, it was reported that two ships trying to pass through the Strait illegally were hit.
As tension in the region intensifies, the macroeconomic effects of the war are being closely monitored.
Inflation data announced yesterday in the USA showed that price increases in the country were accelerating. Annual inflation in the country reached its highest level since April 2023, at 4.2 percent. Monthly inflation in the USA was in line with expectations at 0.5 percent.
Analysts stated that expectations that the fight against increasing geopolitical risks and inflation may last longer than expected have strengthened, and that the predictions in the money markets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase interest rates by the end of the year have strengthened.
On the corporate side, while tightening concerns about the Fed and questions about the impact of artificial intelligence companies’ high spending plans on valuations continued, selling pressure continued in technology stocks.
Broadcom’s shares fell by 5.1 percent, AMD’s shares by 4.9 percent, Micron Technology’s shares by 4.7 percent, Nvidia’s shares by 3.7 percent, Alphabet and Amazon’s shares by 2.5 percent, Microsoft’s shares by 1.5 percent and Intel’s shares by approximately 1 percent.
In light of these developments, the US 10-year bond interest rate is at 4.54 percent, and the dollar index is decreasing and acting balanced at 99.9.
As tensions in the Middle East increased inflation risks, the ounce price of gold fell to 4 thousand 71 dollars yesterday, reaching its lowest level since November 24, 2025. On the new trading day, ounce gold is sold at $4,084 with an increase of 0.3 percent.
While the barrel price of Brent oil rose by 2.9 percent to 93.7 dollars yesterday, with the effect of Iran’s announcement that it closed the Strait of Hormuz following the US attacks on the country, it is traded at 93.1 dollars with a 0.7 percent decrease on the new day.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.62 percent, the Nasdaq index by 1.98 percent and the Dow Jones index by 1.87 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day positively.
While European stock markets were negative yesterday except for the UK, the monetary policy decisions to be taken by the ECB today and the guidance given by ECB President Christine Lagarde will be in the focus of investors.
Index futures contracts in the regional markets started the day with a negative trend due to ongoing concerns that geopolitical risks in the Middle East may increase energy costs.
While the ECB’s interest rate hike was considered certain at today’s meeting, the bank’s interest rate cut expectations were postponed from March 2027 to mid-2027. The ECB is expected to make downward revisions to its growth forecasts in its new economic projections.
On the other hand, due to the weak economic activity in Europe, question marks regarding the timing of the interest rate increase remain on the agenda.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England increased by 0.27 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 0.97 percent, the CAC 40 index in France decreased by 0.51 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 0.46 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a mixed trend.
These developments were also reflected in Asian stock markets. While a mixed outlook prevails in the regional markets, the recovery observed in technology-focused stocks supports risk appetite.
South Korean chip manufacturer SK Hynix’s announcement of its plan to increase production volume increased purchases in the semiconductor industry in the region.
On the other hand, while inflation risks continue in the region, it was reported that President Kazuo Ueda was hospitalized for medical treatment before the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision next week. It is stated that Ueda may not attend the June 15-16 meeting.
With these developments, near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.1 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 0.1 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 0.5 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.3 percent.
Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index, which was horizontal yesterday, completed the day at 13,744.64 points with an increase of 0.02 percent.
The June futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) decreased by 0.45 percent in the evening session last night compared to the normal session closing.
On the other hand, the CBRT’s interest rate decision will be followed domestically. Economists participating in AA Finans’ expectation survey expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to keep the policy rate constant at 37 percent in June.
While Dollar/TL closed yesterday at 46.1290, today it is traded at 46.1530 at the opening of the interbank market, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that the CBRT’s interest rate decision as well as weekly money and bank statistics will be followed in the country today, while the ECB interest rate decision, ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, weekly unemployment benefit applications in the USA and Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be followed abroad, and noted that technically, 13,900 and 14,000 points in the BIST 100 index are resistance and 13,600 and 13,500 points are support.
