In global markets, the easing of geopolitical tensions, albeit limited, and the strengthening of pricing that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at next month’s meeting, support risk appetite, while the intense data agenda to be announced around the world today has become the focus of investors.
While the possibility of a “soft landing” of the economy in the USA still continues to have an impact on asset prices, increasing geopolitical risks limit the upward movement.
While all eyes are on the intense macroeconomic data to be announced around the world today, the signals to be received from the data are expected to give clues about the steps that central banks will take in the coming period.
However, there remain uncertainties about the tax policy to be followed by Donald Trump, who will take office as President of the United States on January 20, and what the results of the tariffs he plans to impose on imported goods will be.
Analysts stated that, in addition to global tensions, possible disagreements between Trump and the Fed administration could play a decisive role in the direction of the markets.
According to pricing in money markets, it is estimated that there is a 60 percent probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and that it will leave the policy rate constant with a 40 percent probability.
On the other hand, the current Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, announced that he will leave his post on January 20, the date when Donald Trump will assume the US Presidency. Gensler, the 33rd President of the Commission, is known for his stance against crypto money.
While the increasing risk appetite in the cryptocurrency markets following the elections in the USA continues on the new day, the price of Bitcoin exceeded 99 thousand dollars today and reached a record level. In addition, the Bitcoin dominance indicator, which shows the weight of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency markets, also increased to 60 percent.
The ounce price of gold continued its rise on the 5th business day and currently increased by 0.5 percent to 2 thousand 686 dollars, while the US 10-year bond interest is at 4.41 percent.
The dollar index increased by 0.2 percent to 107.2, testing its highest level since November 2023.
On the commodity side, Brent oil is traded horizontally at $73.9, while copper, which has lost value in the last 3 days, is priced at $4.09 per pound, 0.5 percent below the previous close.
On the macroeconomic data side, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the USA decreased by 6 thousand to 213 thousand in the week ending November 16, below market expectations.
Analysts noted that the fact that second-hand home sales in the USA were above expectations may indicate an increase in confidence in the economy and an improvement in consumers’ expectations regarding their income in the future.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.5 percent, the Nasdaq index increased by 0.03 percent and the Dow Jones index increased by 1.06 percent in the New York Stock Exchange yesterday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a mixed course.
While European stock markets followed a positive trend yesterday, all eyes are on the data to be announced in the region today with the speech of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.
Statements about whether Britain is involved in the war between Russia and Ukraine are being followed in the region.
Yesterday, after Russian Ambassador to London Andrei Kelin said that Britain was directly involved in the Russia-Ukraine War, British Deputy Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Rob Magowan stated in his statement that they would welcome Russia if it invaded Eastern Europe. “If the British army is asked to fight tonight, we will fight tonight.” he said.
Analysts stated that the mention of England’s name along with the geopolitical tensions in Europe, along with economic data, creates anxiety among investors, and this situation may affect future actions.
With these developments, yesterday the FTSE 100 index in England rose by 0.8 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany rose by 0.7 percent, the CAC 40 index in France and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy rose by 0.2 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day positively.
Asian stock markets are following a mixed trend due to the rise in the dollar index and concerns about the Chinese economy.
According to the macroeconomic data announced today in the region, core inflation in Japan was above expectations at 2.3 percent, and with the dollar/yen parity remaining at 155, it has begun to be predicted that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may increase interest rates at the next meeting.
On the other hand, the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the country in November was 49, the service sector PMI was 50.2 and the composite PMI was 49.8.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index near closing increased by 1 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 0.9 percent, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong and the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 1.5 percent.
Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index, which followed a positive trend in the country yesterday, closed the day at 9,367.77 points, gaining 3.72 percent in value.
While Dollar/TL closed at 34.4860 with a 0.1 percent increase yesterday, today it is traded at 34.5330 in the interbank market, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.
On the other hand, yesterday, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) kept the policy rate, the one-week repo auction interest rate, at 50 percent. In the MPK decision text, it was stated that “The policy rate will be determined to ensure the stringency required by the disinflation process, taking into account inflation realizations and expectations.”
Thus, the Central Bank kept the policy rate unchanged in the eighth meeting.
Analysts stated that today the financial services confidence index will be followed in the country and the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde will be followed abroad, as well as growth in Germany and global manufacturing industry and service sector PMI data. Technically speaking, 9,420 and 9,500 points in the BIST 100 index He noted that resistance, 9,300 and 9,200 levels are in support position.
