A little deduction? US changes military presence in Iraq

Iraq’s prime minister is under increasing pressure to initiate the withdrawal of US troops from his country. The terrorist militia IS could particularly benefit from this. Now there is a kind of middle ground.

The USA wants to realign its military presence in Iraq. Senior US government officials announced a two-stage “transition” – away from the previous international military coalition in the country and towards a bilateral security partnership. A senior US government official emphasized in Washington: “Let me be clear: the United States is not withdrawing its troops from Iraq.” However, the Americans remained extremely tight-lipped about the details, leaving many questions unanswered.

The USA leads an international coalition in Iraq and Syria to fight the terrorist militia Islamic State (IS), “Operation Inherent Resolve”. The operation began after IS overran large parts of Iraq and neighboring Syria in 2014. With the support of the anti-IS alliance, in which the Bundeswehr also takes part, the Iraqi security forces were gradually able to push back the extremists. In 2017, Iraq declared military victory over IS, although its cells remained active in the country and continued to carry out attacks. Since 2021, the coalition’s mission has primarily consisted of training and advisory tasks.

The stated goal was recently to prevent a resurgence of IS, together with the Iraqi armed forces. According to observers, the USA was also concerned with limiting the influence of its arch-enemy Iran. Accordingly, the presence of US troops in Iraq also served to interrupt the supply lines for Iran, for example with weapons deliveries, and to deter pro-Iranian militias in the region.

A first phase of the transition is planned by the end of September 2025, in which the presence of military coalition troops at “certain locations in Iraq” is to be ended. However, the alliance’s operations in Syria continue. “The United States and Iraq recognize that ISIS in Syria continues to pose a significant threat to the region,” said the senior US government official. In order to prevent a return of the IS terrorist threat from northeast Syria, the US and Iraq have agreed “that the coalition can continue to support operations to combat IS in Syria from Iraq in the second phase of the transition until at least September 2026.” .

In response to various questions, American government representatives did not provide specific details about what the realignment would mean for the number of US soldiers and their stationing in certain locations in Iraq. Discussions about this continued, it was said. As part of the transition, there could be changes in numbers and also a change in the tasks of US soldiers to better reflect bilateral interests, the official said, emphasizing again: “We are not withdrawing.”

In addition to Operation Inherent Resolve, there has been a NATO mission in Iraq since 2018 that aims to train and strengthen the military and security forces. The Bundeswehr is also involved in this. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius asked the Bundestag for approval for the Bundeswehr’s continued participation in the international military engagement in Iraq. The threat of IS terror has not been averted, he warned. Iraq is a key country for combating the danger, as well as for the stability of the increasingly volatile region.

The federal government wants to be able to send up to 500 men and women from the Bundeswehr to the country. The mandate for this should run until January 31, 2026. “NATO Mission Iraq should be continued at Iraq’s request,” said Pistorius. “Operation Inherent Resolve should be ended in the long term.”

According to the US government, there are currently around 2,500 American soldiers stationed in Iraq. According to the Pentagon in April, there were around 700 in Syria. Some of the locations were small bases in the middle of the desert. Iran-aligned militias have claimed hundreds of attacks on these sites since the Gaza war broke out nearly a year ago. As Israel’s most important ally, the USA became even more of an enemy for Iran and its proxies than before.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani is under pressure from groups loyal to Iran, political parties and militias to expedite the withdrawal of US troops. There is “no longer any justification” for the large US presence in the country, he emphasized several times. The US-led military coalition against IS is no longer necessary. The group is defeated and no longer poses a real challenge.