US midterms 2026: Election surveys indicate trend for US midterm elections

Midterms in the USA

Surveys indicate a trend

On November 3rd, the USA will re-elect large parts of Congress. Will President Donald Trump’s Republicans lose their majority there?

When Americans go to the polls on November 3rd, the second most important election after the presidential election will take place USA instead: In the US midterm elections, a large part of Congress will be re-elected. Specifically, around a third of the seats in the Senate and all seats in the House of Representatives will be reallocated.

The Republicans currently own the US President Donald Trump the majority in both chambers. However, the so-called US midterms traditionally a vote in which voters often punish the president’s policies with their vote. Even before this midterm election, various polls say that Trump’s party could lose its majority in Congress and the Republicans could face a rude awakening.

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t-online gives an overview of the initial situation in the two chambers of Congress Midterms 2026:

The House of Representatives is completely re-elected every two years. It includes 435 seats of representatives from across the United States. In the current election period, the Republicans have a narrow majority of 219 to 214 seats. Two seats are no longer filled following resignations.

The survey portal “RealClear Polling”, which summarizes various surveys on the important elections in the USA, is currently assuming a victory for the Democrats in the midterms. Accordingly, the Democrats can count on 226 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans can count on 189.

According to the portal, there will still be an open race in 20 constituencies. Other surveys see the race more openly and speak of 40 to 50 contested seats in the 2026 US midterms. At least 218 seats are necessary for a majority in the chamber, which the Democrats should probably achieve, according to the portal.

Unlike the House of Representatives, the Senate will not be completely re-elected in the US midterm elections. Of the 100 seats in the chamber – two for each state – 35 seats will be reassigned this time. 33 elections are regular. In Florida and Ohio, two special elections will also take place: These are necessary because Senators JD Vance (Ohio) and Marco Rubio (Florida) switched to government. Since their successors have been appointed, they must face an early election. The standard term of office for a senator is six years.

The Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority over the Democrats in the chamber. In order for the majority to change, the Democrats would have to keep all of their seats and at least four more Midterms gain. A tie would also mean a majority for the Republicans: In that case, Vance, as Vice President, can vote in the Senate and can thus give the Republicans a majority.