Global markets started the week cautiously due to the lack of concrete progress towards ending the US/Israel-Iran War.
Geopolitical developments originating from the Middle East continue to determine the direction of the markets. In addition to the ongoing tension between the USA and Iran, Israel’s new attacks on Lebanon and statements that the USA may impose new economic sanctions on Iran increase geopolitical uncertainties.
Analysts stated that the factor that affects the markets the most is geopolitical uncertainties and that this situation puts pressure on risk appetite.
After the macroeconomic data announced in the USA last week were below expectations, risk appetite decreased in global markets on Friday. Retail sales in the USA fell by 0.6 percent in July, despite expectations for an increase, and recorded the first decrease since October 2025.
The consumer confidence index measured by the University of Michigan also fell to 51 in August, below market expectations.
The combination of weak retail sales numbers and weakening consumer confidence has raised some questions about the momentum of consumer spending later in the third quarter.
While the data in question showed that the US public’s perspective on the economy had become more pessimistic, it also increased concerns about the growth outlook.
Although inflation in the USA showed signs of slowing down throughout the last week, the uncertainty of the agreement process in the Middle East caused the risk appetite in global markets to remain limited on Friday.
Following the slowdown in inflation in the USA and the decline in retail sales in the country, predictions that the Fed will not change the policy rate next month have strengthened. According to the pricing in the money markets, the possibility of the bank increasing interest rates in September has decreased to 30 percent, while the possibility of an interest rate increase by the end of the year has lost its strength.
The meeting minutes to be announced by the Fed this week will also be closely followed by investors.
With the weakening of interest rate hike expectations for the Fed, the US 10-year bond interest rate decreased by 2 basis points to 4.68 percent, and the dollar index decreased by 0.2 percent to 99.5 percent. An ounce of gold is traded at $4,396 with an increase of 0.5 percent.
With the uncertainties regarding the US-Iran diplomacy, the barrel price of October delivery Brent oil increased by 0.1 percent to 88.7 dollars.
Due to these developments, a negative trend prevailed in the New York stock market on Friday. Shares of social media platform Reddit finished the day with an increase of nearly 13 percent after it was announced that the company would be included in the S&P 500 index on August 18.
Dow Jones index lost 0.2 percent, S&P 500 index lost 0.17 percent and Nasdaq index lost 0.28 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day with a mixed trend.
European stock markets followed a sales-oriented trend on Friday as ongoing geopolitical risks increased oil prices. According to the data announced on Friday, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Eurozone for the second quarter was within expectations, increasing by 0.4 percent compared to the previous quarter and 1 percent on an annual basis.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England lost 0.21 percent, the CAC 40 index in France lost 0.16 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy lost 0.2 percent, while the DAX 40 index in Germany gained 0.53 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a mixed trend.
While Asian stock markets followed a buying trend on the first trading day of the week, technology stocks received support from the reduced forecasts that the Fed would raise interest rates.
On the other hand, macroeconomic data announced today in the region was in the focus of the markets. In Japan, GDP for the second quarter increased by 0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter and 1.1 percent on an annual basis, remaining below expectations. While the data in question revealed that economic growth in the country was slowing down, it was observed that the weakening domestic demand in the country limited the positive effects of strong exports.
While it is seen that the data in question has started to reflect the economic effects resulting from the Iran war, the dollar/yen parity is at 159.1 with a decrease of 0.1 percent.
On the other hand, industrial production in Japan in June increased by 1.9 percent monthly and 4.9 percent annually, exceeding expectations.
With these developments, towards the closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.3 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China rose by 0.8 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose by 1.6 percent.
There are no transactions on the South Korean stock exchange due to the holiday.
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-oriented trend on Friday, closed the day at 14,172.26 points, gaining 0.28 percent in value.
The August futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) rose by 0.08 percent in the Friday evening session compared to the normal session closing. While Dollar/TL completed Friday at 47.8820 with a 0.1 percent increase, it is traded at 47.8990 at the opening of the interbank market today, just above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that today the budget balance in the country and the data agenda abroad will be calm, and noted that technically, 14,300 and 14,400 points in the BIST 100 index are resistance, and 14,100 and 14,000 points are support.
