The barrel price of Brent oil approaching the 120 dollar threshold causes concerns in global energy markets. The resulting picture means a new pressure line on inflation, current account deficit and production costs for Türkiye. According to analysts’ calculations, the $52 difference in Brent oil compared to pre-war levels means an additional cost of approximately $20.8 billion for Türkiye on an annual basis. While this calculation is based on the assumption that every 1 dollar increase in the oil price imposes an annual burden of approximately 400 million dollars on Türkiye’s energy bill, when a multiplier of 450 million dollars is used, the annualized effect of the same difference increases to 23.4 billion dollars.
NUMBERS THAT INCREASE THE BILL
On the other hand, the possible burden of the Hormuz tension on Türkiye becomes clearer when read together with the energy import table. While Türkiye’s energy import bill is calculated as 5 billion 130 million dollars in January and 4 billion 914 million dollars in February of 2026; Approximately 10 billion dollars were paid for energy imports in the first two months of the year. Considering that total imports amounted to 30 billion 80 million dollars in February, it was seen that approximately one-sixth of the import bill was energy-related. Analysts point out that any permanent increase in oil prices is directly reflected not only in fuel prices, but also in the foreign trade balance, foreign exchange need and inflation outlook.
MOST BUYED FROM RUSSIA
The Energy Market Regulatory Authority’s December 2025 Petroleum Market Sector Report also shows that Türkiye’s foreign dependence on oil and petroleum products continues. According to the report Türkiye’s total imports of oil and petroleum products increased by 8.2 percent on an annual basis, reaching 4 million 539 thousand 836 tons. Crude oil imports increased by 18 percent, reaching 2 million 923 thousand 92 tons, and imports of diesel types increased by 7.6 percent, reaching 1 million 240 thousand 30 tons. While the highest import of crude oil and petroleum products was from Russia with 2 million 158 thousand 624 tons, Iraq ranked second with 852 thousand 937 tons and Kazakhstan ranked third with 426 thousand 754 tons.
YEAR ROUND WORRY
Institutional Economics Expert Gülsev Duran stated that the rise in oil prices should be monitored especially through energy imports, current balance and inflation channels for Turkey, and said, “The 52 dollar difference in Brent oil compared to pre-war levels lasting for a year means an annualized cost of 20.8 billion dollars. With higher multipliers, this figure may exceed 23 billion dollars. However, the point that should be noted is that this is not a direct bill that has occurred so far, but the theoretical burden that will arise if the prices remain at the same level throughout the year. “The first thing the markets will look at from now on will be to what extent shipments in Hormuz will return to normal and whether the tensions on the US-Iran line will decrease.” he said.
BASIC COST ITEM
Marketing-Business and Logistics Specialist Volkan Soykan emphasized that the rise in oil prices will be felt not only in energy imports, but also in a wide chain from urban logistics to food shipment, from industrial production to export costs. Soykan said, “As crude oil becomes more expensive, refinery costs, diesel and gasoline prices, land transportation and distribution expenses are pressured upwards in the same chain.”
ECONOMIC PRINTING LINE
Another important topic regarding the Turkish economy that concerns citizens is reflected in the latest forecasts and data regarding the banking sector. It was noteworthy that in Fitch’s assessment of Turkish banks, the base scenario was 49.5 in dollar/TL and 3.4 percent in non-performing loan ratio for the end of 2026.
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