Global oil supply experienced the largest decrease in history, decreasing by 10 million 120 thousand barrels per day in March compared to the previous month, due to the impact of the US/Israel-Iran War.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report, oil supplies fell sharply last month due to attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and restrictions on tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
During this period, the daily production of the OPEC+ group, consisting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producer countries, decreased by 9 million 360 thousand barrels to 42 million 390 thousand barrels.
Daily production decreased by 3 million 150 thousand barrels in Saudi Arabia, 3 million barrels in Iraq, 1 million 350 thousand barrels in Kuwait, 1 million 270 thousand barrels in the United Arab Emirates, 130 thousand barrels in Bahrain and 60 thousand barrels in Iran.
The sharp production losses seen in the OPEC+ group due to the war between the USA-Israel and Iran were partially offset by production increases in some member countries, led by Kazakhstan.
QATAR WAS EFFECTIVE IN THE DECLINE IN NON-OPEC+ PRODUCTION
In March, the total daily production of non-OPEC+ countries decreased by 770 thousand barrels and reached 54 million 660 thousand barrels.
Production cuts in Qatar were mainly effective in this decline. Daily production in Qatar decreased by approximately 1 million 450 thousand barrels in March compared to the previous month, falling to the level of 370 thousand barrels.
In contrast, record production in Brazil and recovery of supply in the US partially offset the decline in global oil production.
Due to attacks on the energy infrastructure in the Middle East and restrictions on tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil supply decreased by 10 million 120 thousand barrels per day to 97 million 50 thousand barrels in March. This development was recorded as the largest supply disruption in history.
EXPECTATIONS FOR INCREASE IN OIL DEMAND HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY FORECAST OF DECLINE
Within the scope of these developments, IEA predicted that global oil demand will decrease by approximately 80 thousand barrels per day this year compared to last year, falling to the level of 104 million 259 thousand barrels.
This outlook indicates a lower estimate of 730 thousand barrels per day compared to last month’s report and means a reversal of the increase expectation in the IEA’s previous report. The weak global outlook caused by the war between the USA, Israel and Iran was effective in this change in demand.
200 thousand barrels per day of the downward revision in the forecast came from OECD countries, and 530 thousand barrels per day from non-OECD countries.
It was stated that the projected decrease of approximately 1 million 500 thousand barrels per day in the second quarter of the year compared to the same period last year was the sharpest decline seen since Covid-19.
