A positive trend is observed in global markets following the ceasefire between the USA and Iran in the Middle East.
The geopolitical tension that started in the Middle East after the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran decreased in its 6th week after the parties agreed on a ceasefire. Following the news of the ceasefire, sharp movements in asset prices are noteworthy, and a “ceasefire rally” is taking place in the stock markets.
US President Donald Trump, in his announcement regarding the negotiations held under the mediation of Pakistan, hours before the deadline given to Iran, stated that the negotiations carried out between the two countries under the leadership of Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Pakistani Chief of General Staff Asim Munir had yielded positive results.
Stating that he accepted Pakistan’s proposal to stop possible attacks tonight and open the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, “I agree to suspend bombardments and attacks against Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a bilateral ceasefire.” he said.
Claiming that he has already achieved his military goals in Iran and stating that they are close to an agreement on a “long-term” peace with Iran, Trump said, “We received a 10-article offer from Iran and we believe that this is a feasible basis for negotiation.” made his assessment.
On the other hand, a White House official, responding to the AA correspondent’s question, stated that Israel also accepted the agreement in question.
In the statement made by the Iranian administration, it was announced that the negotiations to be held in Pakistan to end the war with the USA and Israel are aimed to be concluded within the 15-day ceasefire period.
In his statement on the issue, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Erakçi said that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible for 15 days (during the ceasefire) in coordination with the Iranian army.
Following the statements that a ceasefire has been reached to end the conflicts in the Middle East and that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be ensured, oil prices are experiencing sharp declines.
While the barrel price of Brent oil is sold at $92.2 with a decrease of 10.5 percent, the barrel price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is sold at $89.9 with a decrease of 11.6 percent.
While the expectation of a decline in energy prices following the news of the ceasefire reduced concerns about global inflation, interest rate cut expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) gained strength in the pricing in the money markets.
Analysts stated that the meeting minutes of the Fed’s last meeting, which will be announced today in the USA, and the March inflation, which will be announced on Friday, are being closely followed, and that the expectations for the Fed may become more clear.
Following the ceasefire news that came after the markets closed in the USA yesterday, index futures contracts in the USA started the day with a strong rise.
In index futures in the USA, Nasdaq 100 is trading up 3.2 percent, S&P 500 up 2.5 percent and Dow Jones up 2.3 percent. Before the ceasefire, the Dow Jones index and the Nasdaq index closed the day with a 0.08 percent gain in value and the S&P 500 index with a 0.18 percent loss in value.
Gold prices also rose with the easing of global inflation concerns and predictions that central banks may enter the easing path again. An ounce of gold is traded at $4,791 with an increase of 1.8 percent.
A buyer trend came to the fore in the bond markets following the news of the ceasefire in the Middle East. The US 10-year bond interest rate decreased by 7 basis points to 4.25 percent. The dollar index, on the other hand, decreased by 0.1 percent to 98.9 on the new day, after falling 1 percent to 99 yesterday.
While European stock markets were on a downward trend yesterday, index futures contracts in the region started the day with rapid increases following the news of the ceasefire in the Middle East.
While the sharp declines in energy prices and the increasing global risk appetite are expected to be reflected in the market openings in the region, the Stoxx Europe 50 is traded with a 5.6 percent increase in futures transactions.
Developments regarding energy supply and energy prices in the region continue to be closely followed. In her statement yesterday, European Union (EU) Commission Spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen stated that they are constantly monitoring the situation regarding fuel supply and that this is done in very close cooperation with member countries.
Itkonen pointed out that the Oil Coordination Group will meet today and the Gas Coordination Group will meet tomorrow.
While a positive outlook stands out in Asian stock markets following the news of the ceasefire for the conflicts in the Middle East, sharp increases are noteworthy in the regional markets.
In Asia, which is the region most affected by the serious disruption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices, risk appetite increased after the USA and Iran reached an agreement on a ceasefire.
The relief is noteworthy in the regional indices, where sharp declines have been seen since the beginning of the conflicts in the Middle East.
While financial developments in the region are closely followed, the Japanese parliament approved a record annual budget of 122.31 trillion yen (approximately 767 billion dollars) after the delay due to the early elections held in February.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said in a statement after the budget was adopted that it was too early to predict the impact of the situation in the Middle East or to prepare an additional budget.
On the central banks side, the Reserve Bank of India kept the policy rate constant at 5.25 percent, in line with expectations.
With these developments, near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan gained 5.4 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea gained 7.6 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 3.5 percent, and the Shanghai composite index in China gained 2 percent.
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend yesterday, finished the day at 12,921.56 points, losing 1.45 percent of its value.
The April futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) was traded at 15,174.00 points in the last evening session, 1.3 percent above the normal session closing.
While Dollar/TL closed yesterday at 44.6050, today it is traded at 44.5810 with a 0.1 percent decrease at the opening of the interbank market.
Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm in the country today, and that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the Eurozone and the minutes of the Fed meeting in the USA will be followed abroad, and noted that technically, 12,900 and 12,800 points in the BIST 100 index are support, and 13,100 and 13,200 points are resistance.
