Depending on the severity of the attacks, the possible effects range from short disruptions to more serious consequences. There could be an exodus from the big cities and rationing, Esther Crauser-Delbourg told AFP. Water shortages could also lead to an economic chain reaction impacting tourism, industry and data centers with their high demand for cooling water. According to the French company Veolia, most desalination plants have reserves that cover two to seven days of water consumption.
Iran appears prepared to accept these consequences, even if attacks on such vital facilities are considered war crimes. On March 22, the regime announced it would “irrevocably destroy” key infrastructure across the Middle East, including vital water systems, if the US follows through on Donald Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Iranian power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is fully opened.
To date, there are few precedents for such a situation. In recent years, Yemen and Saudi Arabia have attacked such facilities in each other’s countries, as well as Israel in the Gaza Strip, according to the Pacific Institute think tank, which keeps a register of water-related conflicts. Water infrastructure was also targeted in the 1991 Gulf War.
At least back then, the consequences were dire, as CSIS expert Michel writes. Iraqi forces deliberately destroyed Kuwait’s desalination plants and spilled millions of barrels of oil into the northern Persian Gulf. This affected the water supply to the facilities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Water shortages have forced Kuwaiti authorities to “reduce household water supplies to four days a week,” Michel said. They also had to supply their population with water using tankers and tankers.
The expert fears that modern systems could be even more susceptible to blockages in the water inlets or the sensitive filter membranes for reverse osmosis: “Significantly, in 2008-2009, a massive algae bloom (‘red tide’) led to several systems in Oman and the United Arab Emirates being shut down for up to two months due to this risk.”
