After the 6.2 magnitude earthquake that took place off Silivri, the debates that started in the scientific world are confused and concerned. In 2001, most of the danger maps and scenarios offered to the public about the possible major earthquake in the Marmara Sea. Dr. Celal Şengör and French earthquake scientist Professor Xavier Le Pichon based on the “One Fault” model developed based on 1630 -kilometer seismic data. However, Istanbul Technical University. Dr. According to Cenk Yaltırak and his team, this model has now lost its scientifically valid. Since 2002, Prof. Dr. Marmara has a multi -fault system. Dr. Yaltırak and his team created by using 22 thousand kilometers of seismic data, the new model, at least 4 active fault segments independent of each other in the Sea of Marmara reveals. Data in the new model Prof.Dr. Dr. In addition to Şengör. Dr. Naci Görür and Prof.Dr. Dr. Şener is wasting the theses of Şener Üşümezsoy.
The map itself is dangerous
In the modeling of Yaltırak, the four active fault segments in Marmara have the capacity to produce an independent earthquake independently. If all of the faults are broken at the same time, an earthquake of 7.8 magnitude is inevitable. The main danger is the mistake in the durability accounts of new buildings according to the maps in 2001. Prof. Dr. Yaltırak summarizes this situation with the words “this map itself danger”. Among the most striking results of the new model, even in the same neighborhood, the earthquake effect between the two buildings may vary greatly, old regulations collapse and new scenarios should be written.
Personal career anxiety?
So, why is the old model still used? According to Yaltırak, scientific complexes, status quo and academic career accounts prevent the facts. In the years when he was a research assistant, Prof.Dr. Dr. Yaltırak insistently stated that this map has not been published for four years, while explaining the reason as the fact that existing academic theses will be refuted and personal career concerns.
15 times more data
Well, Prof. Dr. Why is Yaltırak’s model very important? Because The model of Yaltırak and his team is based on a 3D model, which is created with super computers and artificial intelligence, which is created with 15 times more data, which goes down to 10 kilometers below the Marmara.. Prof. Dr. According to Cenk Yaltırak’s earthquake of the Marmara Sea, there are still four large fault fragments in the region. The lack of breakage of these parts varies between 240 and 500 years. The most risky line is the 110 -kilometer East Marmara segment starting from the Osmangazi Bridge and extending to the north of İmralı Island. This segment has the potential to produce a 7.6 magnitude earthquake. Yaltırak also continues to draw attention to the complexity of the bottom structure of the Marmara Sea, “There are three large pits and ridges in the region. So there is no single, flat fault; the structure, a ‘ponytail weave’ like complex and multi -part,” he says.
The latest data set
In summary, there are three different models for the fault structure of the Marmara Sea. The only fault model argues that it extends from Istanbul to Gaziköy. The two -piece models acknowledge that in 1912, Western Marmara was broken and the eastern part is waiting. The four current parts of Yaltırak and his team are based on the most comprehensive data set that has been collected to date. Among the warnings that Yaltırak emphasizes, it is of great importance not only to the age of building or concrete quality, but also the ground enlargement and the scenario of which fault will be broken.
(email protected)
