US President Donald Trump rapidly changing ideas about additional customs duties, increasing fluctuating and uncertainty in the markets, this fluctuation is expected to continue in the coming days.
In addition to US inflation data next week, Trump’s customs duties are expected to make a variety of issues, from geopolitical steps to geopolitical steps.
Investors carefully monitor the European stock exchanges that made the best beginning of the last decade of 2025 against the US stock exchanges.
Rae Wee of Singapore, Lewis Krausopf of New York, Danilo Masoni from Milan and Naomi Rovnick from Milan and Marc Jones from London compiled important issues of the next week.
1. Customs Duties
Trump’s stopping customs duties on Mexico and Canada was positive in the markets.
But investors suspects about whether negotiations on additional customs duties are a tension policy to make concessions or a process that will increase the competition in global trade.
Columbia Threadneedle EMEA Chief economist Steven Bell said Trump’s abolition of some customs duties at the end of bargaining did not prevent him from using these taxes again as a threat. Bell also warned against a trade war that could upset the global order.
The heating of competition in global trade can also increase the attempts of developing countries to reduce the dependencies of US dollars.
2. Prices
Some of the US Federal Reserve (FED) officials warned that inflation could rise after Trump’s customs duty threats. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be announced next week in the US is expected to be closely monitored.
Economists participating in the survey of Reuters estimate that the US TFI will increase by 0.3 percent monthly in January.
In December CPI data, the rise of core inflation for four months after four months increased less than expectations.
However, the Fed’s interruption of monetary relaxation steps last month and Trump’s customs duties moves in the United States in the United States.
3.I
The second round of the trade war between China and the United States has just begun, and investors are preparing for the steps that the United States and China have two largest economies in the world.
Investors are curiously waiting for whether there will be a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the short term, and whether Trump can postpone additional customs duties for China as well as Canada and Mexico.
But China has its own problems.
The hopes of the markets waiting for the Chinese government to take more steps to revive the economy were wasted. The recovery process seems to be long and challenging. Therefore, more and more investors are starting to avoid the Chinese market, which was once seen as the sine qua non of their portfolios.
In addition, the Chinese consumer price index data to be announced on Sunday can create another reason for investors to stay away from China for now.
4. The good performance of Europe’s good performance
Companies in Europe began to attract investors with cheap values, increased profits and acceleration.
The Stoxx 600 index, which follows Europe’s largest companies, has shown its best performance against US stock markets since 2015 in the first six weeks of the year with gains in Frankfurt, London, Milan and Paris.
But the fact that Europe’s good performance is short -term in the past leads to questions about the continuity of this course in the markets.
There are also different factors to support earnings in the short term. Customs duties remain uncertain, but if everything goes well, Germany can go to relax in financial policies and relieve the tension in Ukraine.
The profits of companies in Europe are expected to increase by 7.9 percent in 2025. While profits increased by 1 percent in 2024, 3.9 percent in 2023. The slow growth of the profits of the US companies in the US is expected to increase further than that of European companies.
5. Elections in Ekvator
Equatorial elections are usually excited, but the elections to be held on Sunday have a special importance.
President Daniel Noboa’s biggest rival will be Luisa Gonzalez, who was defeated in the early elections in 2023. Leftist lawyer Gonzalez is a candidate to become the first female president of Ecuador.
The surveys show that Noboa, who has taken over the banana company from his family, can win the election in the first round, but most people think that the second round in April will have to take place.
The most important issues discussed in the country; The possibility of a new debt crisis after drug gangs and electrical cuts after last year’s violent drought.
