1ST TRUMP-XI SUMMIT
Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a three-day visit to Washington next week.
Xi and Trump, who last met in Beijing in May, maintained a generally stable relationship after the October agreement that calmed the trade wars between their countries, but markets will closely monitor how the developments since May, especially the war in Iran, will affect the relationship between the two.
US allies in Asia are worried that Trump may reduce support for Taiwan to gain economic gain ahead of the US midterm elections in November. In addition to the arms race between the USA and China, the increase of the USA’s military presence in space is also one of the important issues between the two countries.
Trump is expected to host many technology company executives, including Nvidia General Manager Jensen Huang, at his second dinner at the White House after taking office.
2. BOND MARKET
Leading purchasing managers index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector in the USA will be announced next Wednesday.
While the 10-year bond yield of the US Treasury, which is used as an important indicator for global borrowing costs and currencies, reached the psychological threshold of 5 percent, investors are watching whether there will be a drastic move after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to increase interest rates for the first time in three years.
On the other hand, many assets are traded at prices that do not match the book accounts. Despite rising US Treasury yields, global stock markets did not lose much last month and the dollar’s rise was limited.
3RD UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY WEEK
The High-Level Week of the 81st United Nations (UN) General Assembly will begin next week in the shadow of increasing global crises. The main topic of the week will be “reestablishing trust and managing transformation”.
The main agenda of the meetings will be the increasing deepening of divisions in the world order. While the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East deepen the gap between Western countries and the global South, the results of interest-oriented diplomacy will come to the fore in the negotiations.
While behind-the-scenes negotiations on who will be appointed as the UN Secretary General intensify, the great powers will try to expand their sphere of influence in the UN.
On the other hand, in the sessions where artificial intelligence regulations, global threats posed by climate change and mechanisms regarding public debt will be discussed, it will be observed whether the countries that have disagreements can still act together on important issues.
The sessions will also reveal whether countries can be prevented from turning in on themselves, which would threaten global economic stability.
4. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DISASTER MORNING
As companies, governments and investors face increasing disaster scenarios regarding the dangers of rapidly developing artificial intelligence technology, the development of artificial intelligence will continue to be at the center of the agenda.
This month, calls by Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei and other leading AI lab executives to “slow down the development” of AI come as warnings are being voiced about the potential threats AI technology poses to humanity.
These concerns began to put pressure on the shares of semiconductor companies and large technology companies, which are at the center of the rise in the shares of companies related to artificial intelligence.
Investors are focusing on concrete signs that will show whether growth is actually slowing down before concluding that the strong rise in AI stocks and the capital spending that has accompanied it over the past two years is over.
While US President Donald Trump has called the recent warnings about the disasters that artificial intelligence may cause unfounded and signaled that he will not allow the development of the technology to slow down, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants to meet with leading artificial intelligence companies in Europe to discuss possible risks.
5. INTEREST RATE DECISION OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDONESIA
The interest rate decision to be announced by the Indonesian Central Bank on Wednesday will be in the focus of the markets due to the recent changes in economic management and the weakening in investor confidence.
The meeting where the interest rate decision will be announced will be the second meeting of Destry Damayanti, the new governor of the Central Bank of Indonesia. It will be her first meeting since she officially took office as the first woman to head the central bank in the country, following the surprise resignation of the previous central bank governor in July.
It is expected that the interest rate will be kept constant or a limited reduction will be made.
Last week, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto dismissed the country’s Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, who was outspoken in his statements, following bureaucratic conflicts.
Analysts hope that investor confidence will be partially restored after Purbaya was replaced by his deputy Suahasil Nazara in the G20 country, which has a 1.5 trillion dollar economy. While Indonesian authorities have long-standing concerns about policy decisions and financial irregularities, there is a possibility that the stock market may lose its emerging market status by MSCI.
