These are the states to watch out for in the US election

Not California, Texas or New York – the presidency will be decided somewhere else. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are vying for votes until recently in the “swing states”. Which are these?

The race is exciting and the result is open: On November 5th, voters in the USA will decide who will lead their country for the next four years. For the Democrat Kamala Harris and the Republican Donald Trump, every vote counts, especially in the seven “swing states” – those changeable states that sometimes favor one party and sometimes the other. Harris and Trump courted voters there intensively.

The reason for this lies in the complex electoral system in the USA: Here the president is not elected directly by the nationwide votes, but by 538 electors who are sent proportionally to the population size of the states. The “winner-take-all” principle applies in almost all states: whoever gets the most votes gets all of the state’s electors.

Many states show clear preferences – California is considered a stronghold for the Democrats, Texas is (still) a safe place for the Republicans. The focus is therefore on states in the “Midwest” and the “Sun Belt”, where conditions are not so clear. The Midwest includes a region in the northern United States with industrial states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and, in the broadest sense, Pennsylvania, which are often considered key states. The “Sun Belt” runs through the southern United States and is known for its warm climate and rapid population growth. Important “swing states” there are Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

The state, which is characterized by a strong middle class, is considered indispensable for both candidates. With its large number of voters, it is difficult to imagine a victory without Pennsylvania. In addition to issues such as the high cost of living and the controversial natural gas extraction through fracking, a racist joke at a Trump event recently caused outrage in the large Puerto Rican community.

Immigration from other states influences the balance of political power in Georgia. After decades of Republican victories, Joe Biden was able to win there for the Democrats in 2020 – mainly thanks to strong mobilization of black voters, who make up around a third of the electorate. But Harris is particularly fighting for younger black men, who have recently increasingly turned to Trump.

Despite the conservative tradition, Harris is hoping for a surprise success in North Carolina, not least because of the many newcomers. The fact that the Republicans have nominated Mark Robinson, an extreme candidate for governor who, among other things, denies the Holocaust and wants to ban abortion, could play into the Democrats’ hands. At the same time, North Carolina is still suffering from the effects of Hurricane Helene. Trump used the disaster to accuse Biden and Harris of poor crisis management – accompanied by false information.

Michigan’s Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer is popular, but the election result remains uncertain. Many Americans of Arab origin live in this industrialized country, which is why Biden’s Middle East policy could become a stumbling block – Harris is being criticized here as Vice President.

Arizona, on the US southern border, plays a key role in both the presidency and the majority in the Senate. Migration is a dominant issue here because of its proximity to Mexico. Progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego is running against Trump friend Kari Lake in the Arizona senatorial election. A referendum on abortion could also mobilize additional votes for the Democrats.

Wisconsin is highly competitive: in 2016, Trump narrowly won here against Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, Biden was only slightly ahead of him. Third-party candidates could tip the scales here if they take decisive votes from Harris or Trump.

Despite fewer voters, Nevada could be decisive. The “Silver State” is struggling with the economic consequences of the pandemic: unemployment is high and the recovery has been sluggish. Three quarters of the population live in and around Las Vegas, the country’s gambling capital.