While the possibility of a very strong El Niño development in the Pacific in the second half of 2026 increases, it is stated that 2027 may witness a new temperature record on a global scale. The real risk for Türkiye is not the direct effect of El Nino, but rather a new temperature pressure on the warming curve that has become increasingly evident in the last 10 years. The data of the General Directorate of Meteorology clearly reveals this picture. While Türkiye’s annual average temperature was measured as 14.5 degrees in 2016, an all-time record was broken with 15.6 degrees in 2024. 2025 was recorded as the fifth hottest year of the last 55 years, with an average temperature of 15.1 degrees.
THE PACIFIC IS WARMING RAPIDLY
According to seasonal forecast models, the probability of a strong El Niño development in the second half of 2026 has increased significantly. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, While the probability of El Niño occurring between May and July 2026 is announced as 61 percent, the World Meteorological Organization draws attention to the rapid warming in the tropical Pacific. Assoc. Prof. at the Climate Desk. Dr. According to the assessment made by Doğukan Doğu Yavaşlı, some models bring to the agenda a scenario that could exceed the very strong El Niño events of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. While experts state that the effect of El Nino on precipitation and temperature in Türkiye is not as direct and unidirectional as seen in countries in the tropical zone, they also make important warnings. Assoc. Dr. At this point, Yavaşlı draws attention to long-term heat waves, high night temperatures, extended forest fire season and increasing agricultural water need, especially for the Mediterranean, Aegean and Southeastern Anatolia.
Türkiye IS WARMING UP RAPIDLY
The main factor that increases the risk table is that Türkiye is entering a possible new El Niño period with a temperature curve that has increased significantly in the last 10 years. According to the annual climate assessment reports of the General Directorate of Meteorology, Türkiye’s annual average temperature will be 14.5 degrees in 2016, 14.2 degrees in 2017, 15.4 degrees in 2018, 14.7 degrees in 2019, 14.9 degrees in 2020, 14.9 degrees in 2021, 14.5 degrees in 2022. It was recorded as 15.1 degrees in 2023, 15.6 degrees in 2024 and 15.1 degrees in 2025. While the simple average of the ten-year period approached 14.9 degrees, the average in the 2021-2025 period exceeded the 2016-2020 period. This table shows that Türkiye not only experienced consecutive hot years; It shows that the annual average temperatures are moving towards a new climate threshold where they persist in an increasingly higher band.
FEARING INCREASE CURVE
Climate modeling and MGM’s long-term analyzes also reveal that the increase in the last 10 years is not a coincidence. In the evaluation made by the institution for the period 1970-2025, it is seen that the average temperature in Turkey increased by 12.7 degrees between 1970-1980, 12.7 degrees between 1981-1991, 13.1 degrees between 1992-2002, 13.6 degrees between 2003-2013, and 14.4 degrees between 2014-2025. In other words Türkiye’s recent temperature average is 0.8 degrees higher than the 2003-2013 period and 1.7 degrees higher than the average of the 1970s and 1980s. This shows that temperatures are not just jumping in a few record years, but are turning into a persistent upward trend spanning many years.
HEAT WAVES ARE COMING
Water Policy Expert Dursun Yıldız said, “The new temperature pressure that may occur between the end of 2026 and 2027 will not come to an empty ground for Turkey. The possibility of a strong El Nino is not just a distant headline in international climate bulletins for Turkey. This possibility points to a new climate test for Türkiye, which has carried the average temperature to the 15 degree band in the last 10 years, broke the annual temperature record in 2024, and experienced summer and July records in 2025. June and “The July 2026 updates will reveal more clearly how strong El Nino will be,” he said.
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