The defense axis established between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is facing its first serious test. While all eyes turned to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement after the Houthi attacks, the three countries decided to accelerate military coordination. During the meeting of Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishak Dar in New York, preparations for an emergency meeting of the chiefs of staff to discuss the support to be given to Saudi Arabia were discussed. According to experts, what is happening is not limited to the Yemen front. The spread of the Iran-Israel war to different fronts and the simultaneous pressure on Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb indicate signs of a much greater showdown in the region.
THE PACT IS ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST TIME
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement stipulates that an attack on one of the parties will be considered as an attack on other countries. The agreement also aims for closer cooperation in the fields of joint defense planning, air defense, electronic warfare, unmanned systems and defense industry. At the first strategic committee meeting held in Istanbul on August 31 The foreign and defense ministers and military officials of Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia sat at the same table. While it was decided to establish a permanent general secretariat in Saudi Arabia, an agreement was reached to select the first secretary general from Pakistan. Thus, the Mecca line began to turn into a permanent security mechanism in a short time.
FIDAN GIVEN A SIGNAL
The noteworthy aspect of the development for Ankara is the statement made by Hakan Fidan only six days ago. Fidan said that Saudi Arabia’s military and technical needs could be met by Türkiye. After this statement, the chiefs of staff prepared for the meeting. He strengthened the comments that Türkiye’s support could focus especially on air defense, electronic warfare, systems against the UAV threat and technical military assistance. One of the most critical countries in the new security equation is Pakistan. The Islamabad administration has been providing training and consultancy support to the Saudi Arabian army for many years.
BEWARE OF THE TWO THROATS
According to experts, the real risk is much broader than missile and UAV attacks against Saudi Arabia. While the most critical point where Iran can put pressure is the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis’ threat area extends to Bab al-Mandeb. These two passages in the east and west of the Arabian Peninsula are among the most critical arteries of global energy and trade. While Persian Gulf oil and LNG shipments go to world markets via Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb provides the connection between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
THE SAUDI’S PLAN B IS ALSO THE TARGET
The most important alternative that Riyadh has developed for years against the Hormuz risk is the East-West pipeline, which connects the oil fields in the east of the country to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. In case of a crisis in Hormuz, Saudi oil is planned to be transported to the west and delivered to world markets via the Red Sea. However, the fact that Yanbu was among the targets in the recent Houthi attacks made this calculation more critical. According to security experts One of the most dangerous scenarios for Saudi Arabia is that the Red Sea exit, along with Hormuz, will come under pressure. In such a situation, both the country’s eastern and western energy outputs may be threatened at the same time.
CONTROLLED CHAOS WARNING
Some security analysts evaluating the developments in the region point out that a new period of “controlled chaos” has entered the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. For Israel, the Houthi front creates a complex picture. The Tel Aviv administration sees the weakening of Iran-linked armed structures as one of the important elements of its security policy. However, opening a new direct and long-term front in Yemen means an additional military burden for the Israeli army. Geostrategist-Researcher Dr. Ahmet Uslu said; “Washington’s unwillingness to be directly involved in new wars in the region has led the Riyadh administration to alternative security models. The importance of the Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia line is increasing here. Turkey with its strong defense industry and military technology, Pakistan with its large army and long-standing Gulf experience, and Saudi Arabia with its financial resources constitute the three main pillars of the new structure,” he says.
