Worry about escalation
In fact, there is a greater likelihood that Russia will further escalate the war in the coming months: There is talk, for example, of a new mobilization to send more soldiers to Ukraine. And a number of NATO states in Central and Eastern Europe have warned in recent weeks that Russia is soon considering a strike against a NATO state.
It is therefore no surprise that Putin has not yet accepted the invitation to the G20 summit. He will probably find an excuse not to show up in the coming weeks. Because he is still pursuing his ultimate goals: the military should conquer as much of Ukraine as it can – whatever the cost. Someone who thinks like that simply cannot offer anything in peace negotiations.
So far, Trump has been of little interest. War crimes, high death rates or imperialist politics do not deter him. When you hear Trump talk about the Ukraine war, you might sometimes think he’s talking about two children fighting over a toy.
Summit in Trump Hotel
What we don’t yet know, however, is how this narcissistic US president will react if his invitation to a summit is rejected. Because the upcoming meeting is not just any G20 meeting. It takes place in Miami, not far from Trump’s private estate and in one of his golf hotels, which of course also bears his name.
In the best case scenario, such a rejection would drive Trump further to Ukraine’s side. Most recently, the president had already allowed Ukraine to build its own Patriot missiles and put new sanctions on Russia into force. In the worst case, the Russian president would prove once again that peace negotiations with him remain pointless.
This is precisely the value of this invitation: it ultimately brings Putin to a decision from which he has little to gain. But perhaps it will help Trump understand who is actually preventing his peace efforts in Ukraine. It’s worth a try.
