Istanbul, after the last earthquake almost on the thorns. Megakent, while waiting for a great disaster, scientific reports offer scary data. Many reports published since 2000 emphasize that Megakent is full of defective buildings built on soft floors. In an earthquake of 7 magnitude, these structures have a great risk of destruction; Among the most risky regions of Istanbul, Avcılar, Beylikdüzü, Haramidere and Büyükçekmece stand out. It is underlined that the ground properties in these regions can cause major damage during the earthquake. However, the risk is not limited to these regions. Filling areas such as Yenikapı, Maltepe, Zeytinburnu, Kağıthane, Alibeyköy and Haliç also carries serious risks due to the danger of floors and sliding. In order to understand the danger waiting for the city, it is necessary to look at the x -ray of Istanbul.
48 thousand buildings with heavy damaged
While there are approximately 1 million 166 thousand buildings in Istanbul, approximately 70 percent of these buildings, ie 817 thousand buildings, were built in 2000 and before. There are approximately 4.5 million apartments in the existing buildings in Megakent, while an average of 3.3 people in each apartment are estimated to have an average of 3.3 people. According to the modeling, in an earthquake of 7.5 in Istanbul 194 thousand buildings will take moderate and high levels; 48 thousand buildings will occur heavy and very heavy damage.
30 percent will close
One of the remarkable findings reflected from the reports is the age distribution of structures. It is emphasized that 255 thousand buildings in Istanbul were built before 1980, 538 thousand 800 buildings were built between 1980-2000 and 376 thousand buildings were built between 2000-2019. In a possible large earthquake in Megakent; 463 drinking water point, 1045 waste water points and 355 natural gas points are expected to be damaged. According to the scenario prepared in a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in the city 30 percent of the roads will be closed. In case of all this scenario, the economic invoice will exceed approximately 120 billion TL.
Old stream beds
In the “Geology of the Istanbul Provincial Area” report prepared by the IMM Earthquake and Ground Investigation Directorate, the geological structure of the city is handled with all the details. The comprehensive geology map, which was initiated in 1994 and completed in 2011, consists of 1088 sheets of 1/5,000 scale, covers 5 thousand 366 km of Istanbul. Earthquake specialist Prof. Dr. In the report, which includes Ziyadin Çakır’s analysis with Insar Satellite data, especially Haramidere, Ayamama Creek, Kurbağalıdere (Kadıköy), Çırpıcı Creek (Zeytinburnu), Kağıthane, Alibeyköy, Yenikapı, Maltepe and other filler areas are underlined.
LIQUILITY RISK PLACES
In the report, Prof.Dr. Dr. Sener Muşümezsoy’un reference to the determinations, Avcılar, Küçükçekmece, Bakırköy, Bağcılar, Esenler and Topkapı in the regions such as fossil layers of the period, the weakest floors against earthquakes are said. In the report, “The areas gained by filling the sea in Istanbul are at risk for ground safety.“ His opinions are listed.
Which districts are risky?
While it is stated that filling areas such as Zeytinburnu and Maltepe are highly risky, it draws attention in the following warnings and determinations: “Investigations in these regions show that the floor structure is quite weak and serious structural damage may occur during earthquakes.” Research on Tuzla, Kartal and Pendik filling areas show that sea fillings contain dangers for floor safety. Structures on the filling areas are more vulnerable to earthquake and changes in groundwater levels may cause the floor to liquefy. “
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