The eyes and ears of millions of civil servants and retirees in Türkiye are turned to the inflation data to be announced at the beginning of July. In today’s column, Dünya newspaper writer Naki Bakır discussed the new salary scenarios shaped in line with the expectations of market participants.
As the inflation forecasts for the first half of the year became clear, the second half salary increase rates of the huge population of civil servants and retirees also became largely visible.
Reminding the critical date that will determine the fate of the salary increases, Naki Bakır said, “Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce the monthly change in the consumer price index (CPI) throughout June at 10:00 on Friday, July 3. Thus, the inflation in the first six months of the year and the legal raise rates of civil servants and retirees for the second six months determined accordingly will be determined.” He reveals the schedule of the process by saying.
By adding the June data to the 16.61 percent inflation in the first five months of the year, the six-month net picture will emerge.
Referring to the expectations of the economic management and the market for June, the author explains the reflection of global developments on inflation and the survey results: “Oil prices, which exceeded 4 percent monthly in April as a reflection of the hot war between the USA / Israel and Iran in March, decreased to 1.71 percent in May with the withdrawal of oil prices during the ceasefire period.
“In the survey conducted by the Central Bank with ‘market participants’, consisting of decision makers and experts in the financial and real sectors, the average monthly CPI increase expectations in June were low at 1.36 percent.”
Stating that if this forecast comes true, consumer inflation in the January-June period will reach 18.19 percent, Bakır explained how this rate will be reflected in salaries as follows:
