How much will the raise for retirees and civil servants be? After the July raise, all eyes turned to the January raise. Millions of people are researching how much of an increase is expected in order to calculate the increased salaries. The Central Bank’s inflation expectations and the updating of the market’s forecasts caused new calculations to be made. Which rates stand out for the January 2027 salary increase?
HOW MUCH IS THE RETIREMENT PAGE?
Following the salary increases in July, all eyes turned to the increase in retiree and civil servant salaries in January 2027. While the inflation data announced in the second half of the year were closely followed, the increase scenarios for January also changed with the Central Bank’s upward update of the year-end inflation forecast.
The Central Bank increased its 2026 year-end inflation forecast, which was previously announced as 26 percent, to 28 percent. In addition, in the Market Participants Survey conducted by the Central Bank, year-end inflation expectation increased to 29.43 percent. Calculations made based on these two different estimates reveal the first picture of the levels at which pension and civil servant salaries may change in January 2027.
28 PERCENT INFLATION SCENARIO
If the Central Bank’s year-end inflation forecast of 28 percent comes true, the calculation based on 6-month inflation results in an increase of approximately 8.70 percent for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. For civil servants and civil servant retirees, it is calculated that the increase can be approximately 6.67 percent, considering the collective bargaining increase and the inflation difference that will occur. In this scenario, the raise difference between the two groups approaches approximately 2 points.
If the year-end inflation expectation of 29.43 percent in the Market Participants Survey is realized, the calculations go slightly higher.
In this scenario, an increase of 9.91 percent is calculated for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. The total increase of retired civil servants and civil servants is expected to reach 7.86 percent. Thus, if market expectations come true, the difference in raise between SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and civil servant and civil servant retirees will be approximately 2 points.
HOW MUCH WILL BE THE LOWEST CIVIL SERVANT SALARY?
With the increase in July, the lowest civil servant salary increased from 61 thousand 890 lira to 70 thousand 224 lira. If the total raise rate is 7.86 percent in January, the lowest civil servant salary is expected to increase to approximately 75 thousand 744 lira.
This figure shows the calculation made based on the current estimate. The exact salary amount will be determined after the inflation data in the second half of the year is completed.
LOWEST RETIREMENT SALARY
For SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, not only the general raise rate in January 2027, but also the regulation that can be made for the lowest pension is important.
If the current practice continues and the base pension is increased by 9.91 percent, the lowest pension payment, which is currently at 23 thousand 552 liras, may increase to approximately 25 thousand 886 liras.
However, the new amount of the minimum pension is not automatically finalized by accounting for inflation alone. A separate legal regulation needs to be made for the base salary.
For SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, not only the general raise rate in January 2027, but also the regulation that can be made for the lowest pension is important. If the current practice continues and the base pension is increased by 9.91 percent, the lowest pension payment, which is currently at 23 thousand 552 liras, may increase to approximately 25 thousand 886 liras. However, the new amount of the lowest pension is not automatically finalized by accounting for inflation alone. A separate legal regulation needs to be made for the base salary.
