The risk appetite, which weakened last week with the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) choice to increase interest rates for the first time since July 2023 and Fed President Kevin Warsh’s forward-looking “hawkish” messages, gained strength in the new week with hopes for diplomacy.
While ongoing regional tensions in the Middle East and ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine cause concerns about energy supply to remain alive, the increase in fuel prices continues to disrupt the growth and inflation expectations of economies.
While the rise in energy costs in the USA feeds “hawkish” predictions about the Fed, pricing in the money markets continues to focus on the fact that the Fed may make an additional interest rate increase by the end of the year. In addition, the verbal guidance given by many Fed officials this week will be closely monitored.
In parallel with these developments, all eyes are on the UN Summit to be held in the USA this week. At the summit, many high-level meetings and meetings will be held at the level of leaders, especially the USA and China.
Oil prices started the week with a decline, with hopes that geopolitical risks could decrease and therefore energy supply could increase by getting positive results from these talks.
While inflation concerns eased somewhat with the easing in oil prices, it was observed that the tendency towards risky assets increased.
Analysts noted that easing the problems related to oil supply may contribute to the road maps of economies and central banks becoming more clear, which may partially reduce the perception of uncertainty in the markets.
On the other hand, US and Chinese delegations met to discuss economic and commercial issues before Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to the US.
The meeting held between the US delegation, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and the Chinese delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Hı Lifıng, at the headquarters of JPMorgan Chase, one of the largest US banks, in Manhattan, lasted all day.
In his statement to the press after the meeting, Bessent said, “We had a very successful meeting with China on trade and artificial intelligence.” he said. Stating that the parties agreed to come together again, Bessent stated that the USA suggested the establishment of a notification mechanism between the two countries.
Additionally, US Permanent Representative to the UN Mike Waltz said, “The door is open for Iran to return to the negotiating table.” He made a statement.
With these developments, the US 10-year bond interest started the week at 5 percent with a horizontal outlook, while the dollar index, which rose to 100 last week with the prediction that the Fed may increase interest rates one after the other, started the new week at these levels.
The ounce of gold, whose alternative cost has increased due to high bond interest rates and a strong dollar, started the week at 4 thousand 355 dollars with a decrease of 0.5 percent. The barrel price of November delivery Brent oil is at 101.7 dollars, with a decrease of 2.1 percent, with the return to the diplomatic process.
On Friday, in the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.17 percent, the Nasdaq index increased by 0.3 percent, and the Dow Jones index lost 0.18 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the week positively.
While European stock markets remain negative on Friday, developments in the UN General Assembly, energy prices and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data across the region will be followed.
While tensions in the Middle East and concerns about oil and gas supply cause investors to remain cautious in Europe, the re-intensification of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine keeps geopolitical risks alive.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported yesterday that they hit the logistics center, warehouse and ship used for military purposes in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that they discussed the efforts to end the war on the phone with US President Donald Trump. Stating that they also talked about the meeting planned to be held in New York in the coming days, Zelenskiy said, “We agreed to meet in New York and this meeting can change many things. There is a diplomatic dynamic.” he said.
While the risks that European economies may face a difficult period with increasing energy costs continue, the rise in country bond interest rates is noticeable. An upward movement is observed in 10-year bond interest rates in Germany, England and France.
On Friday, the FTSE 100 index in England fell by 1.45 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy fell by 1.60 percent, the CAC 40 index in France fell by 1.49 percent, and the DAX 40 index in Germany fell by 1.60 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the week positively.
The first positive signals in Asian stock markets regarding the talks between the USA and China increased the risk appetite in the regional markets. It is considered that positive results may be obtained from the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which is expected this week.
The Chinese leader is expected to visit the USA on September 23. Relations between the USA and China were knotted in a series of disagreements that expanded during Trump’s second term in power, on the one hand, with the Washington administration’s tariff increases and restrictions in technology, and on the other hand, with the steps taken by China towards the control of rare earth elements, from which the majority of the global supply is met.
With the positive messages given after the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025, the parties reached a temporary compromise on the disputed issues.
On the other hand, the decline in oil prices was also effective in reviving risk appetite in the region. With these developments, the Kospi index in South Korea rose by 1.3 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China rose by 0.5 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose by 0.5 percent near the closing. Markets in Japan will be closed today for a holiday.
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend on Friday, lost 1.67 percent of its value and finished the day at 13,284.42 points.
The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) decreased by 0.14 percent in the evening session on Friday compared to the normal session closing.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came to New York, USA, yesterday to attend the 81st General Assembly of the United Nations (UN) and hold various contacts.
Meanwhile, in line with the new principle decisions taken by the Capital Markets Board (CMB), changes were made in the fund liquidation procedures and principles announced on September 17. Accordingly, the liquidation period, which was previously determined as a maximum of 3 months, was increased to 6 months, taking into account the portfolio structures and market developments of the funds announced to be liquidated.
The Board authorized Türkiye İş Bankası and Ziraat Bankası to carry out the processes regarding 131 investment funds liquidated by 7 portfolio management companies on September 17, and envisaged the liquidation to be completed within 3 months at most.
While Dollar/TL completed Friday at 48.7650, today, at the opening of the interbank market, it is traded at 48.8010, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that domestic capacity utilization rate, real sector confidence index, Foreign Producer Price Index (YD-PPI) data will be followed today, and the data agenda abroad will be calm, and noted that technically, 13,100 and 13,000 points in the BIST 100 index are support and 13,400 and 13,500 points are resistance.
