While global markets are predominantly selling due to the increasing geopolitical tensions between the USA and Iran, all eyes are on the growth and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data to be announced in the USA today.
Selling pressure driven by geopolitical risks continues to be effective in global markets. While the escalation of tension between the USA and Iran caused an increase in risk perception in the markets, US President Donald Trump said that it will be seen within 10 days where the said process will evolve.
Stating that a comprehensive agreement should be made with Iran, Trump stated that otherwise bad things would happen.
With these statements, caution prevailed in the markets again. This halted the temporary recovery in stocks and reduced the overall risk appetite.
In addition to these developments, Trump signed a new presidential decree to protect the domestic supply of strategically important elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides in order to increase military readiness capacity and secure agricultural production.
Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spokesperson Julie Kozack said that the dollar continues to play a central role in the international monetary system and maintains its dominance in global trade, reserves, borrowing and payments.
On the macroeconomic data side, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the USA decreased by 23 thousand people in the week ending February 14 compared to the previous week, falling to 206 thousand and was below market expectations.
The US foreign trade deficit increased by 32.6 percent compared to the previous month and reached 70.3 billion dollars in the last month of last year, reaching its highest level since July. The country’s foreign trade deficit decreased by 0.2 percent annually in 2025, falling to 901.5 billion dollars.
The fact that the balance sheets and forecasts announced by the companies are not very encouraging are among the reasons that cause the risk appetite to decrease in global markets.
Analysts said that the growth and PCE price index data to be announced in the USA today could be decisive on the direction of the markets.
With these developments, the US 10-year bond interest is at 4.07 percent, and the dollar index is at 98, 0.1 percent above yesterday’s closing, with predictions that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not rush to reduce interest rates.
An ounce of gold is traded at $4,998, decreasing by 0.1 percent. The barrel price of Brent oil, which rose to 71.7 dollars due to the increasing geopolitical tensions and reached its highest level in 6 months, stabilized at 71.6 dollars.
The New York Stock Exchange was negative with mixed signals coming from the balance sheets announced by the companies. On the other hand, shares of other companies fell after alternative asset management company Blue Owl Capital restricted investor withdrawals in one of its funds and decided to sell $1.4 billion worth of assets from three of its funds.
While the shares of Blue Owl Capital decreased by 5.9 percent, the shares of companies such as Blackstone and Apollo Global Management lost 5.4 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively.
In addition, while the financial results of Walmart, one of the US retail giants, were evaluated by investors, although the company’s quarterly revenue and profit were above expectations, its profit forecast for the current fiscal year did not meet expectations. Walmart’s shares lost 1.4 percent.
With these developments, the Dow Jones index lost 0.54 percent, the S&P 500 index lost 0.28 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 0.31 percent.
European stock markets finished the day negatively after companies’ balance sheets were not encouraging. Geopolitical risks also caused an increase in risk perception in European markets.
Investors across Europe priced in the financial results of giant companies such as Airbus, Renault and Nestle.
The European aircraft manufacturer announced that it has postponed production targets for the popular A320 model. Airbus shares lost approximately 7 percent of their value as the number of deliveries expected for 2026 was below market forecasts.
Although Renault’s 2025 revenue increased by 3 percent to 57.9 billion euros, Nissan announced a net loss of 10.9 billion euros due to one-time expenses related to its investments. Company shares closed the day with a 3.12 percent decrease.
Nestle’s sales and net profit declined. However, as negotiations for the sale of the ice cream unit continued, company shares gained approximately 4 percent in value.
On the other hand, the German Central Bank (Bundesbank) announced that the country’s economy is expected to continue its growth trend in the first quarter of the year.
The European Central Bank (ECB) also imposed an administrative fine of approximately 12.2 million euros on JPMorgan’s European subsidiary, JP Morgan SE, for its inaccurate declaration of capital requirements.
On the other hand, objections to the European Union (EU) Commission’s plan, which aims to revitalize the industry of member countries and give priority to European companies in public procurement, are increasing.
While the proposal, which includes the “Made in Europe” requirement in public procurement and aims to support the European industry, was expected to be announced in February, the draft text sent to the units within the Commission received harsh criticism.
9 different units of the Commission gave negative feedback to the work of EU Commission Vice President Stephane Sejourne, who was responsible for the team that prepared the draft.
These wide-ranging objections created the risk of the law, which had been postponed before and was last planned to be announced on February 26, to be postponed once again.
On the macroeconomic data side, the consumer confidence index for February in the Eurozone was at -12.2.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England lost 0.55 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy lost 1.22 percent, the CAC 40 index in France lost 0.36 percent, and the DAX 40 index in Germany lost 0.93 percent.
The sales-oriented trend seen in the New York stock exchange was also carried over to the Asian stock markets. While the Lunar New Year holiday continues in China, there are no transactions on the Chinese stock exchange.
Inflation in Japan slowed to 1.5 percent in January, the lowest level since March 2022, and fell below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) inflation target of 2 percent. Core inflation in the country also decreased from 2.4 percent to 2 percent.
Analysts said that despite the slowdown in inflation announced in Japan, volatility in fresh food prices still continues and predictions that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may increase interest rates this year are on the table.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan lost 1.2 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 0.6 percent. In South Korea, the Kospi index reached a record level with 5,799.69 points. The rise in South Korean technology companies was effective in the positive trend in the Kospi index.
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend yesterday, finished the day at 13,804.21 points, losing 3.20 percent of its value.
The February futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) was traded at 15,430.00 points in the evening session, with a 0.1 percent increase compared to the normal session closing.
While Dollar/TL closed yesterday at 43.7580, today it is traded at 43.8430 at the opening of the interbank market, 0.2 percent above the previous closing.
Analysts stated that an intensive data agenda will be followed today, including international investment position, real sector confidence index and manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate in the country, growth and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the USA, global manufacturing industry and service sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, and Producer Price Index (PPI) in Germany. Technically, 13,600 and 13,500 points in the BIST 100 index will be supported. He noted that 13,900 and 14,000 points are resistance points.
